Journal of the Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회논문지)

Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회)
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Robo-Advisor Profitability combined with the Stock Price Forecast of Analyst

애널리스트의 주가 예측이 결합된 로보어드바이저의 수익성 분석

  • Kim, Sun-Woong (Major in Trading System, Graduate School of Business IT, Kookmin University)
  • 김선웅 (국민대학교 비즈니스IT전문대학원 트레이딩시스템전공)
  • Received : 2019.07.19
  • Accepted : 2019.09.20
  • Published : 2019.09.28
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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the profitability of Robo-Advisors portfolio combined with the analysts' forecasts on the Korean stock prices. Sample stocks are 8 blue-chips and sample period is from 2003 to 2019. Robo-Advisor portfolio was suggested using the Black-Litterman model combined with the analysts' forecasts and its profitability was analyzed. Empirical result showed the suggested Robo-Advisor algorithm produced 1% annual excess return more than that of the benchmark. The study documented that the analysts' forecasts had an economic value when applied in the Robo-Advisor portfolio despite the prevalent blames from investors. The profitability on small or medium-sized stocks will need to be analyzed in the Robo-Advisor context because their information is relatively less known to investors and as such is expected to be strongly influenced by the analysts' forecasts.

우리나라 주식시장에서 애널리스트들이 발표하는 주가 전망 자료를 입력변수로 활용한 로보어드바이저 포트폴리오의 수익성이 있는지를 분석하고자 하였다. 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 표본 주식은 업종을 대표하는 8개의 우량주이며, 분석 기간은 2003년부터 2019년까지의 17년 자료이다. 표본 주식에 대한 주가와 애널리스트 주가 전망 자료를 결합하는 블랙리터만모형을 통해 로보어드바이저 포트폴리오를 추천하고 벤치마크 대비 수익성을 비교하였다. 실증 분석 결과, 애널리스트들의 주가 전망 자료를 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘의 수익성은 벤치마크 포트폴리오보다 연평균 1% 이상의 초과 수익을 시현하였다. 투자자들의 비판적 시각에도 불구하고 개별 종목에 대한 투자가 아닌 상대적 투자 비중을 구하는 로보어드바이저 관점에서는 애널리스트들의 주가 전망 자료가 경제적 가치를 보유하고 있음을 밝혔다. 향후 연구에서는 애널리스트들의 주가 전망 영향력이 대형주보다 더 클 것으로 예측되는 중 소형주를 포함한 로보어드바이저 포트폴리오의 수익성을 분석할 필요가 있다.

Keywords

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