한국건설관리학회논문집 (Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management)

  • 제20권5호
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  • Pages.125-136
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  • 2019
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  • 2005-6095(pISSN)
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  • 2465-9703(eISSN)
한국건설관리학회 (Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management)
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플랜트, 건축, 토목 공종별 해외건설 리스크평가 비교분석

A Comparative Analysis of Risk Assessment Depending on International Project Types

  • Baek, Seungwon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Han, Seung-Heon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Jung, Wooyong (Department of Nuclear Power Plant Engineering, KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School)
  • 투고 : 2019.07.31
  • 심사 : 2019.08.26
  • 발행 : 2019.09.30
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초록

본 연구는 국내 대형 건설 기업이 수행한 124건의 해외사업에 대해 입찰 전 예측 리스크, 수주 후 실제 리스크, 예비비 반영률, 원가 상승률 등을 조사하였다. 이를 기반으로 플랜트, 건축, 토목 공종별 예측 리스크 수준, 실제 리스크 수준, 입찰 전 예측 리스크와 예비비 간 관계, 실제 리스크와 원가 상승률의 상관성을 분석하여 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 첫째, 플랜트와 토목 사업은 건축 사업에 비해 예측 리스크와 실제 리스크 수준이 높았다. 특히, 플랜트와 토목 사업에서는 국가 리스크가 가장 높았으나 건축사업에서는 프로젝트 리스크가 가장 높았던 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 플랜트와 토목 사업이 건축 사업보다 예비비를 많이 설정하였으나 입찰 전 예측 리스크 수준과는 상관성이 없었다. 이는 우리 기업의 예비비 산정에 문제가 있음을 내포하고 있다. 셋째, 세 개 공종 모두 실제 리스크 발생 수준과 원가 상승률 사이에 유의미한 상관성이 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 리스크 관리가 실행원가 관리에 중요한 요소임을 보여준다. 본 연구에서 도출된 결과는 국내 기업들의 공종별로 차별화된 보다 실전적인 리스크 관리를 지원할 것으로 기대된다.

This study investigated checked risk level before bid, actual risk level after award, contingency, and cost growth rate in the 124 international construction projects executed by Korean major companies. This study conducted comparative analysis by product type using rank analysis, ANOVA and correlation analysis. As a result, plant and civil projects have worse risk level than architecture projects not only in before bid but also in after award. Especially, country risk is the worst risk in both plant and civil projects, followed by project risk and capability risk. Also, although plant and civil projects reflect more contingency than architecture projects, contingency is not correlated with the checked risk level before bid. Lastly, the cost growth rate is correlated with the actual risk level in all product types. This study is expected to support in planning better practical risk management for international construction projects.

키워드

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