The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies (한국전자거래학회지)

Society for e-Business Studies (한국전자거래학회)
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Antibiotics-Resistant Bacteria Infection Prediction Based on Deep Learning

딥러닝 기반 항생제 내성균 감염 예측

  • Oh, Sung-Woo (Graduate School of Information, Yonsei University) ;
  • Lee, Hankil (College of Pharmacy, Yonsei University) ;
  • Shin, Ji-Yeon (Graduate School of Information, Yonsei University) ;
  • Lee, Jung-Hoon (Graduate School of Information, Yonsei University)
  • Received : 2019.02.11
  • Accepted : 2019.02.22
  • Published : 2019.02.28
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Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) and other government agencies aroundthe world have warned against antibiotic-resistant bacteria due to abuse of antibiotics and are strengthening their care and monitoring to prevent infection. However, it is highly necessary to develop an expeditious and accurate prediction and estimating method for preemptive measures. Because it takes several days to cultivate the infecting bacteria to identify the infection, quarantine and contact are not effective to prevent spread of infection. In this study, the disease diagnosis and antibiotic prescriptions included in Electronic Health Records were embedded through neural embedding model and matrix factorization, and deep learning based classification predictive model was proposed. The f1-score of the deep learning model increased from 0.525 to 0.617when embedding information on disease and antibiotics, which are the main causes of antibiotic resistance, added to the patient's basic information and hospital use information. And deep learning model outperformed the traditional machine hospital use information. And deep learning model outperformed the traditional machine learning models.As a result of analyzing the characteristics of antibiotic resistant patients, resistant patients were more likely to use antibiotics in J01 than nonresistant patients who were diagnosed with the same diseases and were prescribed 6.3 times more than DDD.

세계보건기구(WHO)를 비롯해 세계 각국의 정부기관은 항생제 오남용에 따른 항생제 내성균 감염에 대해 심각하게 경고하며 이를 예방하기 위한 관리와 감시를 강화하고 있다. 하지만 감염을 확인하기 위한 감염균 배양에 수일의 시간이 소요되면서 격리와 접촉주의를 통한 감염확산 방지 효과가 떨어져 선제적 조치를 위한 신속하고 정확한 예측 및 추정방법이 요구되고 있다. 본 연구는 Electronic Health Records에 포함된 질병 진단내역과 항생제 처방내역을 neural embedding model과 matrix factorization을 통해 embedding 하였고, 이를 활용한 딥러닝 기반분류 예측 모형을 제안하였다. 항생제 내성균 감염의 주요 원인인 질병과 항생제 정보를 embedding하여 환자의 기본정보와 병원이용 정보에 추가했을 때 딥러닝 예측 모형의 f1-score는 0.525에서 0.617로 상승하였고, 딥러닝 모형은 Super Learner와 같은 기존 기계학습 모형보다 더 나은 성능을 보여주었다. 항생제 내성균 감염환자의 특성을 분석한 결과, 감염환자는 동일한 질병을 진단받은 비감염환자에 비교해 J01 계열 항생제 사용이 많았고 WHO 권고기준(DDD)을 크게 벗어나는 오남용 청구사례가 6.3배 이상 높게 나타났으며 항생제 오남용과 항생제 내성균 감염간의 높은 연관성이 발견되었다.

Keywords

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