Geomechanics and Engineering

Techno-Press (테크노프레스)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

A dynamic reliability approach to seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams

  • Hu, Hongqiang (Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University) ;
  • Huang, Yu (Department of Geotechnical Engineering, College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University)
  • Received : 2019.06.17
  • Accepted : 2019.08.26
  • Published : 2019.08.30
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Seismic vulnerability assessment is a useful tool for rational safety analysis and planning of large and complex structural systems; it can deal with the effects of uncertainties on the performance of significant structural systems. In this study, an efficient dynamic reliability approach, probability density evolution methodology (PDEM), is proposed for seismic vulnerability analysis of earth dams. The PDEM provides the failure probability of different limit states for various levels of ground motion intensity as well as the mean value, standard deviation and probability density function of the performance metric of the earth dam. Combining the seismic reliability with three different performance levels related to the displacement of the earth dam, the seismic fragility curves are constructed without them being limited to a specific functional form. Furthermore, considering the seismic fragility analysis is a significant procedure in the seismic probabilistic risk assessment of structures, the seismic vulnerability results obtained by the dynamic reliability approach are combined with the results of probabilistic seismic hazard and seismic loss analysis to present and address the PDEM-based seismic probabilistic risk assessment framework by a simulated case study of an earth dam.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : National Natural Science Foundation of China

References

  1. Abdelhamid, H., Mahmoud, B. and Hussein, M. (2013), "Seismic fragility and uncertainty analysis of concrete gravity dams under near-fault ground motions", Civ. Environ. Res., 5, 123-129. https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.256-259.2240.
  2. Bernier, C., Padgett, J.E., Proulx, J. and Paultre, P. (2015), "Seismic fragility of concrete gravity dams with spatial variation of angle of friction: case study", J. Struct. Eng., 142(5), 05015002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)st.1943-541x.0001441.
  3. Bernier, C., Monteiro, R. and Paultre, P. (2016), "Using the conditional spectrum method for improved fragility assessment of concrete gravity dams in Eastern Canada", Earthq. Spectra, 32(3), 1449-1468. https://doi.org/10.1193/072015eqs116m.
  4. Bray, J.D. and Travasarou, T. (2007), "Simplified procedure for estimating earthquake-induced deviatoric slope displacements", J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng., 133(4), 381-392. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1090-0241(2007)133:4(381).
  5. Calabrese, A. and Lai, C.G. (2016), "Sensitivity analysis of the seismic response of gravity quay walls to perturbations of input parameters", Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 82, 55-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2015.11.010.
  6. Chen, J.B. and Li, J. (2010), "Stochastic seismic response analysis of structures exhibiting high nonlinearity", Comput. Struct., 88(7-8), 395-412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compstruc.2009.12.002.
  7. Chen, Z., Shi, C., Li, T. and Yuan, Y. (2012), "Damage characteristics and influence factors of mountain tunnels under strong earthquakes". Nat. Hazards, 61(2), 387-401. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9924-3.
  8. Chen, Z.Y., Chen, W. and Bian, G.Q. (2014), "Seismic performance upgrading for underground structures by introducing shear panel dampers", Adv. Struct. Eng., 17(9), 1343-1357. https://doi.org/10.1260/1369-4332.17.9.1343.
  9. Chenari1a, R.J. and Fatahi, B. (2019), "Physical and numerical modelling of the inherent variability of shear strength in soil mechanics". Geomech. Eng., 17(1), 31-45. https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2019.17.1.031.
  10. Choi, E., DesRoches, R. and Nielson, B. (2004), "Seismic fragility of typical bridges in moderate seismic zones", Eng. Struct., 26(2), 187-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2003.09.006.
  11. Darbre, G.R. (2004) "Swiss guidelines for the earthquake safety of dams", Proceedings of the 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Vancouver, Canada, August.
  12. Ellingwood, B.R. (2001), "Earthquake risk assessment of building structures", Reliabil. Eng. Syst. Safety, 74(3), 251-262. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0951-8320(01)00105-3.
  13. Ellingwood, B.R. and Kinali, K. (2009), "Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in seismic risk assessment", Struct. Safety, 31(2), 179-187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.001.
  14. Fei, S., Tan, X., Wang, X., Du, L. and Sun, Z. (2019), "Evaluation of soil spatial variability by micro-structure simulation", Geomech. Eng., 17(6), 565-572. https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2019.17.6.565.
  15. General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China & Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China (2011), Post-Earthquake Field Works--Parts 4: Assessment of Direct Loss (GB/T 18208.4-2011). (in Chinese).
  16. GEO-SLOPE International Ltd. (2018), Dynamic Model with QUAKE/W.
  17. Gikas, V. and Sakellariou, M. (2008) "Settlement analysis of the Mornos earth dam (Greece): Evidence from numerical modeling and geodetic monitoring", Eng. Struct., 30(11), 3074-3081. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2008.03.019.
  18. Guan, Z. (2009), "Investigation of the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake damages to the Zipingpu Water Control Project and an assessment of its safety state", Sci. China Ser. E Technol. Sci., 52(4), 820-834. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-009-0044-1.
  19. Guneyisi, E.M. and Altay, G. (2008), "Seismic fragility assessment of effectiveness of viscous dampers in R/C buildings under scenario earthquakes", Struct. Safety, 30(5), 461-480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2007.06.001.
  20. Hariri-Ardebili, M.A. and Saouma, V.E. (2016a), "Probabilistic seismic demand model and optimal intensity measure for concrete dams", Struct. Safety, 59, 67-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2015.12.001.
  21. Hariri-Ardebili, M.A. and Saouma, V.E. (2016b), "Seismic fragility analysis of concrete dams: A state-of-the-art review", Eng. Struct., 128, 374-399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2016.09.034.
  22. Huang, Y. and Xiong, M. (2017), "Dynamic reliability analysis of slopes based on the probability density evolution method", Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 94, 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2016.11.011.
  23. Huang, Y., Xiong, M. and Zhou, H. (2015), "Ground seismic response analysis based on the probability density evolution method", Eng. Geol., 198, 30-39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2015.09.004.
  24. Hynes-Griffin, M.E. and Franklin, A.G. (1984), "Rationalizing the seismic coefficient method (No. WES/MP/GL-84-13)", Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station Vicksburg Ms Geotechnical Lab.
  25. Ichii, K. (2002), "A seismic risk assessment procedure for gravity type quay walls", Struct. Eng. Earthq. Eng., 19(2), 131s-140s. https://doi.org/10.2208/jsceseee.19.131s.
  26. Ioannou, I., Douglas, J. and Rossetto, T. (2015), "Assessing the impact of ground-motion variability and uncertainty on empirical fragility curves", Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 69, 83-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.10.024.
  27. Ju, B.S. and Jung, W. (2015), "Evaluation of seismic fragility of weir structures in South Korea", Math. Prob. Eng. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/391569.
  28. Kadkhodayan, V., Aghajanzadeh, S.M. and Mirzabozorg, H. (2016), "Seismic assessment of arch dams using fragility curves", Civ. Eng. J., 1(2), 14-20.
  29. Kim, J.M. and Sitar, N. (2013), "Probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced permanent deformation of slopes", Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 44, 67-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2012.09.001.
  30. Kostov, M., Boncheva, H., Stefanov, D., Varbanov, G., Kaneva, A. and Koleva, N. (1998), "Seismic risk assessment of large concrete gravity dams", Proceedings of the 11th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paris, France, September.
  31. Li, J. and Chen, J. (2008), "The principle of preservation of probability and the generalized density evolution equation", Struct. Safety, 30(1), 65-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2006.08.001.
  32. Li, J. and Chen, J. (2009), Stochastic Dynamics of Structures, John Wiley & Sons.
  33. Lin, L. and Adams, J (2007), "Lessons for the fragility of Canadian hydropower components under seismic loading", Proceedings of the 9th Canadian Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Ottawa, Canada, June.
  34. Liu, Z., Liu, W. and Peng, Y. (2016), "Random function based spectral representation of stationary and non-stationary stochastic processes", Prob. Eng. Mech., 45, 115-126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2016.04.004.
  35. Lopez-Caballero, F. and Modaressi-Farahmand-Razavi, A. (2010), "Assessment of variability and uncertainties effects on the seismic response of a liquefiable soil profile", Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 30(7), 600-613. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2010.02.002.
  36. Lupoi, A. and Callari, C. (2012), "A probabilistic method for the seismic assessment of existing concrete gravity dams", Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 8(10), 985-998. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2011.574819.
  37. Mitropoulou, C.C. and Papadrakakis, M (2011) "Developing fragility curves based on neural network IDA predictions", Eng. Struct., 33(12), 3409-3421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2011.07.005.
  38. Noh, H.Y., Lallemant, D. and Kiremidjian, A.S. (2015), "Development of empirical and analytical fragility functions using kernel smoothing methods", Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., 44(8), 1163-1180. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.2505.
  39. Papadrakakis, M., Papadopoulos, V., Lagaros, N.D., Oliver, J., Huespe, A.E. and Sanchez, P. (2008), "Vulnerability analysis of large concrete dams using the continuum strong discontinuity approach and neural networks", Struct. Safety, 30(3), 217-235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2006.11.005.
  40. Peng, J., Tong, X., Wang, S. and Ma, P. (2018), "Threedimensional geological structures and sliding factors and modes of loess landslides", Environ. Earth Sci., 77(19), 675. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7863-y.
  41. Peyras, L., Carvajal, C., Felix, H., Bacconnet, C., Royet, P., Becue, J.P. and Boissier, D. (2012), "Probability-based assessment of dam safety using combined risk analysis and reliability methods-application to hazards studies", Eur. J. Environ. Civ. Eng., 16(7), 795-817. https://doi.org/10.1080/19648189.2012.672200.
  42. Rashidi, M. and Haeri, S.M. (2017), "Evaluation of behaviors of earth and rockfill dams during construction and initial impounding using instrumentation data and numerical modeling", J. Rock Mech. Geotech. Eng., 9(4), 709-725. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrmge.2016.12.003.
  43. Shen, H.Z., Jin, F. and Zhang, C.H. (2008), "Performance-based aseismic risk analysis model of concrete gravity dams", Rock Soil Mech., 12, 3323-3328 (in Chinese).
  44. Sica, S. and Pagano, L (2009), "Performance-based analysis of earth dams: Procedures and application to a sample case", Soil. Found., 49(6): 921-939. https://doi.org/10.3208/sandf.49.921.
  45. Sudret, B., Mai, C. and Konakli, K, (2014), "Assessment of the lognormality assumption of seismic fragility curves using nonparametric representations". arXiv preprint arXiv:1403.5481.
  46. Swaisgood, J.R. (2003), "Embankment dam deformations caused by earthquakes", Proceedings of the Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Christchurch, New Zealand, February.
  47. Tekie, P.B. and Ellingwood, B.R. (2003), "Seismic fragility assessment of concrete gravity dams", Earthq. Eng. Struct. Dyn., 32(14), 2221-2240. https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.325.
  48. Tsompanakis, Y., Lagaros, N.D., Psarropoulos, P.N. and Georgopoulos, E.C. (2010), "Probabilistic seismic slope stability assessment of geostructures", Struct. Infrastruct. Eng., 6(1-2), 179-191. https://doi.org/10.1080/15732470802664001.
  49. Wang, D.B., Liu, H.L. and Yu, T. (2012), "Seismic risk analysis of earth-rock dam based on deformation", Rock Soil Mech., 5, 031. (in Chinese).
  50. Wang, Z., Pedroni, N., Zentner, I. and Zio, E. (2018), "Seismic fragility analysis with artificial neural networks: Application to nuclear power plant equipment", Eng. Struct., 162, 213-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2018.02.024.
  51. Wang, J.T., Zhang, M.X., Jin, A.Y. and Zhang, C.H. (2018), "Seismic fragility of arch dams based on damage analysis", Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng., 109, 58-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2018.01.018.
  52. Yang, X.L. and Liu, Z.A. (2018), "Reliability analysis of threedimensional rock slope", Geomech. Eng., 15(6), 1183-1191. https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2018.15.6.1183.
  53. Yegian, M.K., Marciano, E.A. and Ghahraman, V.G. (1991), "Seismic risk analysis for earth dams", J. Geotech. Eng. 117(1), 18-34. https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)0733-9410(1991)117:1(18).
  54. Zentner, I., Gundel, M. and Bonfils, N. (2017), "Fragility analysis methods: Review of existing approaches and application", Nucl. Eng. Des., 323, 245-258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucengdes.2016.12.021.
  55. Zhou, W., Hua, J., Chang, X. and Zhou, C (2011), "Settlement analysis of the Shuibuya concrete-face rockfill dam", Comput. Geotech., 38(2), 269-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2010.10.004
  56. Zhu, J.Q. and Yang, X.L. (2018), "Probabilistic stability analysis of rock slopes with cracks", Geomech. Eng., 16(6), 655-667. https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2018.16.6.655.

Cited by

  1. Seismic response analysis of embankment dams under decomposed earthquakes vol.21, pp.1, 2019, https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2020.21.1.035
  2. Seismic fragility analysis of a cemented Sand-gravel dam considering two failure modes vol.26, pp.6, 2019, https://doi.org/10.12989/cac.2020.26.6.483
  3. Three dimensional seismic deformation-shear strain-swelling performance of America-California Oroville Earth-Fill Dam vol.24, pp.5, 2021, https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2021.24.5.443
  4. Modified pseudo-dynamic analysis of rigid gravity retaining wall with cohesion-less backfill and uniform surcharge vol.26, pp.5, 2019, https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2021.26.5.453