Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment (환경영향평가)

Korean Society of Environmental Impact Assessment (한국환경영향평가학회)
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Non-parametric Trend Analysis Using Long-term Monitoring Data of Water Quality in Paldang Lake

장기 모니터링 자료를 이용한 팔당호 수질변화의 비모수적 추세분석

  • Cho, Hang-Soo (Water Engineering Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Son, Ju-Yeon (Han-River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kim, Guee-Da (Han-River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Shin, Myoung-Chul (Han-River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Cho, Yong-Chul (Han-River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Shin, Ki-Sik (Water Engineering Research Division, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Noh, Hye-Ran (Han-River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research)
  • 조항수 (국립환경과학원 물환경공학연구과) ;
  • 손주연 (국립환경과학원 한강물환경연구소) ;
  • 김귀다 (국립환경과학원 한강물환경연구소) ;
  • 신명철 (국립환경과학원 한강물환경연구소) ;
  • 조용철 (국립환경과학원 한강물환경연구소) ;
  • 신기식 (국립환경과학원 물환경공학연구과) ;
  • 노혜란 (국립환경과학원 한강물환경연구소)
  • Received : 2018.08.21
  • Accepted : 2019.02.28
  • Published : 2019.04.30
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Abstract

This study, we conducted a non-parametric trend test (Seasonal Kendall tests, LOWESS) and Cross Correlation. We aimed to identify water quality trends using the weekly data for 9 variables (Water Temperature, EC, DO, BOD, COD, T-N, T-P, TOC and Chl-a) collected from 4 sites in the Paldang Lake from 2004.01 to 2016.12. According to the Seasonal Kendall test, Water temperature increased but EC, T-N and T-P decreased trend. LOWESS showed that BOD was gradually decreased from 2013 to 2016. but COD gradually increased between 2012 and 2016. As a result, it was confirmed that the period between 2012 and 2013 was a turning point in the increase of COD along with the decrease of BOD at all sites in Paldang Lake. Results of Cross Correlation showed that there was no time difference between all of Water variables and Sites. In this study, it is necessary to analyze the cause of the transition period and to monitoring the water quality more precisely for better water quality management in Paldang Lake.

본 연구는 팔당호 내 4개 지점을 대상으로 각 지점에서의 장기 수질 변화 및 지점 간 시차성을 확인하기 위하여 비모수적 추세분석 방법인 Seasonal Kendall test, LOWESS와 Cross Correlation을 수행하였다. 본 분석을 위하여 2004년 1월부터 2016년 12월까지, 각 지점별 9개 수질 항목(수온, EC, DO, BOD, COD, T-N, T-P, TOC, Chl-a)의 주별 분석 자료를 사용하였다. Seasonal Kendall test 결과 수온은 증가, EC와 T-N, T-P는 전 지점 모두 감소 경향을 나타내었다. LOWESS 결과 BOD 농도는 전 지점에서 2013년부터 2016년까지 "감소" 경향을 나타내었고 COD는 2012년부터 "증가" 경향을 나타내었다. 따라서 2012~2013년은 팔당호 전 지점에서 BOD의 개선과 함께 COD의 증가가 나타나는 전환기였음을 확인할 수 있었다. Cross Correlation 결과, 모두 시차성 없음으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 통하여 팔당호에 대한 보다 적합한 수질관리를 위하여 위의 전환기에 대한 발생원인 분석과 함께 수질 측정주기의 증가를 통한 보다 정밀한 모니터링이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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Figure 1. Location of study sites in Paldang lake.

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Figure 2. The results of LOEWSS of water quality variables at stations; (a) WT, EC, DO, (b) BOD, COD, TOC, (c) T-N, T-P, Chl-a.

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Figure 2. Continued

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Figure 2. Continued

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Figure 3. Seasonal Kendall and LOEWSS trend by the weekly data of BOD, COD

Table 4. The results of cross correlation analysis of Paldang dam (P2) and major inflow streams (P3, P4, P5)

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Table 5. The results of cross correlation analysis of water quality variables

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Table 1. The results of Seasonal Kendall tests of water quality variables at stations

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Table 2. The results of correlation analysis of Paldang Dam (P2) major inflow streams (P3, P4, P5)

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Table 3. The results of correlation analysis of water quality variables

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