한국임상수의학회지 (Journal of Veterinary Clinics)

  • 제36권1호
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  • Pages.23-29
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  • 2019
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  • 1598-298X(pISSN)
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  • 2384-0749(eISSN)
한국임상수의학회 (The Korean Society of Veterinary Clinics)
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종 분포 모형을 이용한 국내 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생 위험지역 추정

Application of Species Distribution Model for Predicting Areas at Risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the Republic of Korea

  • 김으뜸 (강원대학교 수의과대학 및 동물의학종합연구소) ;
  • 박선일 (강원대학교 수의과대학 및 동물의학종합연구소)
  • Kim, Euttm (College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Pak, Son-Il (College of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 투고 : 2019.01.09
  • 심사 : 2019.02.01
  • 발행 : 2019.02.28
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초록

While research findings suggest that the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is the leading cause of economic loss in Korean poultry industry with an estimated cumulative impact of $909 million since 2003, identifying the environmental and anthropogenic risk factors involved remains a challenge. The objective of this study was to identify areas at high risk for potential HPAI outbreaks according to the likelihood of HPAI virus detection in wild birds. This study integrates spatial information regarding HPAI surveillance with relevant demographic and environmental factors collected between 2003 and 2018. The Maximum Entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling with presence-only data was used to model the spatial risk of HPAI virus. We used historical data on HPAI occurrence in wild birds during the period 2003-2018, collected by the National Quarantine Inspection Agency of Korea. The database contains a total of 1,065 HPAI cases (farms) tied to 168 unique locations for wild birds. Among the environmental variables, the most effective predictors of the potential distribution of HPAI in wild birds were (in order of importance) altitude, number of HPAI outbreaks at farm-level, daily amount of manure processed and number of wild birds migrated into Korea. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the 10 Maxent replicate runs of the model with twelve variables was 0.855 with a standard deviation of 0.012 which indicates that the model performance was excellent. Results revealed that geographic area at risk of HPAI is heterogeneously distributed throughout the country with higher likelihood in the west and coastal areas. The results may help biosecurity authority to design risk-based surveillance and implementation of control interventions optimized for the areas at highest risk of HPAI outbreak potentials.

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