Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Analysis of Baseflow using Future Land Use and Climate Change Scenario

토지이용 및 기후 예측자료를 활용한 미래 기저유출 분석

  • Choi, Yujin (Department of Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Jonggun (Institute of Agricultural and Life Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Dong Jun (Department of Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Han, Jeongho (Department of Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Gwanjae (Department of Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Park, Minji (Han River Environment Research Center, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kim, Kisung (Department of Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lim, Kyoung Jae (Department of Regional Infrastructure Engineering, Kangwon National University)
  • Received : 2018.08.07
  • Accepted : 2018.10.19
  • Published : 2019.01.31
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Abstract

Since the baseflow, which constitutes most of the river flow in the dry season, plays an important role in the solution of river runoff and drought, it is important to accurately evaluate the characteristics of the baseflow for river management. In this study, land use change was evaluated through time series data of land use, and then baseflow characteristics were analyzed by considering climate change and land use change using climate change scenarios. The results showed that the contribution of baseflow of scenarios considering both climate change and land use change was lower than that of scenarios considering only climate change for yearly and seasonal analysis. This implies that land use changes as well as climate changes affect base runoff. Thus, if we study the watershed in which the land use is occurring rapidly in the future, it is considered that the study should be carried out considering both land use change and climate change. The results of this study can be used as basic data for studying the baseflow characteristics in the Gapcheon watershed considering various land use changes and climate change in the future.

Keywords

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Fig. 1 Overview of this study

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Fig. 2 Study area (Gapcheon watershed)

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Fig. 4 Simulation of Land use changes in 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040 using CLUE-S

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Fig. 3 Monthly averaged temperature and precipitation in Daejeon weather station

Table 1 Changes in Land use for this study area

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Table 2 Evaluation Index (W.Me et al., 2015)

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Table 3 SWAT-CUP Parameters

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Table 4 AUC (Area Under the ROC Curve) in ROC curve

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Table 5 Changes in 7 Land use Classes in 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040 years

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Table 6 Analysis of Flow Duration Curve for Scenario 1 and 2

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Table 7 Comparison of annual precipitation and baseflow for scenario 1 and 2 (pcp=precipitation)

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Table 8 Comparison of seasonal precipitation and baseflow for scenario 1 and 2

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