한국습지학회지 (Journal of Wetlands Research)

한국습지학회 (Korean Wetlands Society)
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금강유역 2014~2016년 기상학적 가뭄과 농업가뭄간의 상관성 평가

Evaluation of the Relationship between Meteorological Drought and Agricultural Drought of Geum River Basin During 2014~2016

  • 이지완 (건국대학교 사회환경공학부) ;
  • 김경호 (환경정책평가연구원 환경평가본부) ;
  • 김세훈 (건국대학교 사회환경공학부) ;
  • 우소영 (건국대학교 사회환경공학부) ;
  • 김성준 (건국대학교 사회환경공학부)
  • Lee, Ji Wan (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Kim, Kyoung-Ho (Environmental Assessment Group, Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Kim, Sehoon (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Woo, Soyoung (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Kim, Seong Joon (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • 투고 : 2019.10.10
  • 심사 : 2019.11.04
  • 발행 : 2019.12.30
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초록

본 논문의 목적은 금강유역을 대상으로 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 기상학적 가뭄지수, 농업용 저수지 가뭄지수(Reservoir Drought Index, RDI)간의 관계를 통해 기상학적 가뭄이 농업에 미치는 상관성을 분석하는데 있다. 2014년부터 2016년까지의 강수량, 농업용 저수율 자료를 수집하여 가뭄지수를 산정하였으며, 기상학적 가뭄과 농업가뭄간의 상관성을 평가하기 위해 Pearson 상관계수와 Receiver Operation Characteristic (ROC) 분석을 실시하였다. 상관분석결과 SPI-6와 RDI의 Pearson 및 ROC 적중룰이 각각 0.606, 0.722으로 가장 높게 분석되었고 가뭄의 공간적 발생패턴을 분석하기 위해 공간분포된 SPI-6와 RDI를 중첩한 결과 2015년 8월부터 2015년 10월의 심한 가뭄 발생 시 미호천 상류 유역과 논산천 유역에서 중복적으로 가뭄의 심도의 차이가 발생하는 것을 확인하였다. 저수지 가뭄이 발생한 지역에 대한 저수지의 제원을 이용하여 분석을 수행한 결과, RDI 가뭄이 크게 나타난 지역은 유역배율이 작은 저수지들이 많이 모여 있는 지역일수록 극심한 가뭄을 겪는 것으로 분석되어, 유역배율에 따라 저수지의 농업가뭄 대응능력에 차이가 있음을 확인하였다.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) meteorological drought and RDI (Reservoir Drought Index) agricultural drought for Geum river basin. Drought Indices was calculated by collecting data of precipitation and agricultural reservoir water storage rate from 2014 to 2016. To evaluated the correlation between meteorological and agricultural drought, the Pearson correlation and the Receiver Operation Characteristic (ROC) analysis were conducted to evaluate the correlation between meteorological and agricultural droughts. The SPI-6 and RDI showed the highest relationship with Pearson coefficient 0.606 and ROC hit rates 0.722 respectively, and the spatial occurrence patterns of drought using overlapped SPI-6 and RDI, the big differences between the 2 indices were occurred in the upstream areas of Miho stream and Nonsan stream from August to October 2015. The analysis using reservoirs specifications for areas where reservoir droughts occurred was conducted, and the areas showing severe drought of RDI were the reservoir areas having relatively small value of basin magnifying power (BMP). This means that a reservoir has the reaction capability for agricultural drought mainly depending on the reservoir BMP.

키워드

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