Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure

Korean Society of Ecology and Infrastructure Engineering (응용생태공학회)
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DNDC Modeling for Greenhouse Gases Emission in Rice Paddy of South Korea and the Effect of Flooding Management Change and RCP 8.5 Scenario

RCP 8.5 시나리오와 관수 기법의 변화에 따른 논에서의 온실가스 배출 변화의 DNDC 모델을 통한 모의

  • Min, Hyungi (Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Graduate School, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, Min-Suk (Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Graduate School, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, Jeong-Gyu (Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Graduate School, Korea University) ;
  • Hwang, Wonjae (Department of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Graduate School, Korea University)
  • 민현기 (고려대학교 환경생태공학부) ;
  • 김정규 (고려대학교 환경생태공학부) ;
  • 김민석 (고려대학교 환경생태공학부) ;
  • 황원재 (고려대학교 환경생태공학부)
  • Received : 2018.09.17
  • Accepted : 2018.09.19
  • Published : 2018.09.30
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Abstract

In 21th century, climate change is one of the fundamental issue. Greenhouses gases are pointed as the main cause of climate change. Soil play a vital role of carbon sink and also can be a huge source of greenhouse gases defense on the management. Flux of greenhouse gases is not the only factor can be changed by climate change. Climate change can alter proper management. Temperature change will modify crop planting and harvesting date. Other management skills like fertilizer, manure, irrigation, tillage can also be changed with climate change. In this study, greenhouse gases emission in rice paddy in South Korea is simulated with DNDC model from 2011 - 2100 years. Climate for future is simulated with RCP 8.5 scenario for understanding the effect of climate change to greenhouse gases emission. Various rice paddy flooding techniques were applied to find proper management for future management. With conventional flooding technique, climate change increase greenhouse gases emission highly. Marginal flooding can decrease large amount of greenhouse gases emission and even it still increases with climate change, it has the smallest increasing ratio. If we suppose the flooding technique will change for best grain yield, dominant flooding technique will be different from conventional flooding to marginal flooding. The management change will reduce greenhouse gases emission. The result of study shows the possibility to increase greenhouse gases emission with climate change and climate change adaptation can show apposite result compared without the adaptation.

기후 변화는 21세기에 인류가 맞이한 가장 중요한 문제 중에 하나이다. 탄소 배출은 이러한 기후 변화의 가장 핵심 원인으로 지목 된다. 토양은 관리 방법에 따라서 탄소의 저장원이 되기도 하지만 큰 배출원이 될 수도 있다. 기온의 변화는 농경지 토양에서 배출되는 온실가스의 양을 크게 변화시킬 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 작물의 생산량을 위한 농법 변화에도 영향을 미치기 때문에 기후 변화에 따른 온실가스 배출 변화는 두 가지 요인의 상호작용을 고려할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 남한의 논에서의 온실가스 배출은 2011년부터 2100년까지 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 기상 변화에 따라서 모의하였다. 농법의 변화로는 다양한 논의 담수 기법이 적용되었다. 기존의 담수 기법으로는 기후변화가 진행됨에 따라서 온실가스 배출이 급격하게 상승하는 것을 확인할 수 있었고, 간단관수가 이러한 온실가스 배출을 크게 감소시킴을 확인하였다. 미래의 농법이 작물의 생산량을 최대화시키는 방향으로 변화한다고 가정하였을 때 기후 변화에 따라서 많은 농지가 관행 농법 보다 간단관수가 시행되었을 때 수확량이 상승하게 되었고, 이러한 기후변화의 적응을 고려하였을 때는 기후 변화에 따라서 온실가스 배출이 감소함을 확인하였다.

Keywords

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