Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Analysis of the Influences on Domestic Wood Market by Prohibiting Illegal Wood Products Trade

불법목재의 교역 제한 조치가 국내 목재 시장에 미치는 영향 분석

  • Kim, Dong-Hyun (Division of Global Forestry, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Park, Hyun (Department of Forest Bio-Resources, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Lee, Ho Sang (Warm Temperate and Subtropical Forest Research Institute, National Institute of Forest Science)
  • 김동현 (국립산림과학원 국제산림연구과) ;
  • 박현 (국립산림과학원 산림생명자원연구부) ;
  • 이호상 (국립산림과학원 난대.아열대산림연구소)
  • Received : 2018.04.24
  • Accepted : 2018.08.23
  • Published : 2018.09.30
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Abstract

This study conducted to estimate the influences of policy which prohibits illegal logging trade. Before analyzing of the economic effects for this policy, scenario methods were selected to inflect economic circumstance by implementing it. In order to do, the policy experiments were carried out using equilibrium displacement equation model. Results show that change ratio of log price was increased 0.066%~0.071%. Since the primary import country of log is New zealand which is high CPI score rather than Republic of Korea so that imported quantity of log was decreased thinly. Because imported log price is worked as a cost in the lumber market, if the imported log price was increased, supply of lumber has to be decreased. So that, not the change ratio of domestic lumber price was increased 0.885%~4.179% but supply of domestic lumber was increased 5.367% respectively along the goods features as a heterogeneity or homogeneity on the market.

이 연구의 목적은 "목재의 지속가능한 이용에 관한 법률"에 근거하여 불법목재의 교역을 제한하는 제도 시행에 앞서 국내 목재시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 수행하였다. 시나리오 작성을 위해 부패인식지수를 활용하였고 이를 바탕으로 균형대체방정식 모형을 이용하여 정책실험을 수행하였다. 원목의 균형가격 변화율은 0.066%~0.071% 범위에서 상승할 것으로 분석되었다. 원목가격의 상승은 파생수요의 관계에 있는 제재목의 생산비에 반영되어 제재목의 공급량을 감소시킨다. 상품유형별로 대체효과에 의한 국산재 수요 확대와 국내 가격상승에 의한 공급량 확대를 감안하여 분석한 결과, 국산 제재목 가격 변화율의 범위는 0.885%~4.179%에서 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며 이에 따라 국산 제재목의 공급량은 적어도 5.367% 증가될 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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