Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems (지능정보연구)

Korea Intelligent Information System Society (한국지능정보시스템학회)
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Online Document Mining Approach to Predicting Crowdfunding Success

온라인 문서 마이닝 접근법을 활용한 크라우드펀딩의 성공여부 예측 방법

  • Received : 2018.05.09
  • Accepted : 2018.07.14
  • Published : 2018.09.30
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Abstract

Crowdfunding has become more popular than angel funding for fundraising by venture companies. Identification of success factors may be useful for fundraisers and investors to make decisions related to crowdfunding projects and predict a priori whether they will be successful or not. Recent studies have suggested several numeric factors, such as project goals and the number of associated SNS, studying how these affect the success of crowdfunding campaigns. However, prediction of the success of crowdfunding campaigns via non-numeric and unstructured data is not yet possible, especially through analysis of structural characteristics of documents introducing projects in need of funding. Analysis of these documents is promising because they are open and inexpensive to obtain. We propose a novel method to predict the success of a crowdfunding project based on the introductory text. To test the performance of the proposed method, in our study, texts related to 1,980 actual crowdfunding projects were collected and empirically analyzed. From the text data set, the following details about the projects were collected: category, number of replies, funding goal, fundraising method, reward, number of SNS followers, number of images and videos, and miscellaneous numeric data. These factors were identified as significant input features to be used in classification algorithms. The results suggest that the proposed method outperforms other recently proposed, non-text-based methods in terms of accuracy, F-score, and elapsed time.

크라우드펀딩(Crowdfunding)은 최근 벤처 기업의 기금 모금을 위한 엔젤 기금보다 인기가 있다. 이에 따라 크라우드펀딩의 성공 요인을 파악하는 것은 기금 조성자 및 투자자로 하여금 크라우드펀딩 프로젝트와 관련된 효과적 의사결정을 내리기 위해 크라우드펀딩 성공 여부를 선험적으로 예측하는데 유용할 것이다. 이에 최근까지 프로젝트의 목표 및 관련 SNS의 수와 같은 몇 가지 수치적 요인을 독립변인으로 제안하여 이들이 크라우드펀딩 캠페인의 성공에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 등이 연구되어오고 있었다. 그러나 수치가 아닌 비정형 데이터를 통한 크라우드펀딩 캠페인의 성공에 대한 예측은 거의 이루어진 바 없으며, 특히 프로젝트를 소개하는 문서에 대한 특성 분석을 통해 해당 프로젝트의 성공여부를 예측하려는 연구는 아직 이루어지지 않았다. 사실 프로젝트를 소개하는 문서는 공개되어 있어 확보에 드는 비용이 적게 들기 때문에 매우 유용하다. 따라서 본 연구의 목적은 Wadiz 등 온라인상으로 공개되어 있는 프로젝트에 대한 소개 문서를 기반으로 크라우드펀딩 프로젝트의 성공을 예측하는 새로운 방법을 제안하는 것이다. 제안된 방법의 성능을 테스트하기 위해, 본 연구에서는 1,980개의 실제 크라우드펀딩 프로젝트와 관련된 텍스트를 수집하고 경험적으로 분석했다. 텍스트 데이터 세트에서 카테고리, 응답 수, 자금 조달 목표, 기금 모금 방법, 보상, SNS 추종자 수, 이미지 및 비디오 수 및 기타 숫자 데이터와 같은 프로젝트에 대한 세부 정보를 수집하였다. 분석 결과 이러한 요인들은 분류 알고리즘에서 분류 성능을 제고하는데 의미 있는 변인으로 확인되었다. 즉, 제안된 방법이 최근에 제안된 비정형 텍스트 기반 방법보다 정확도나 F-점수 및 수행 경과 시간에서 성능이 우수하였다.

Keywords

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