KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Analysis of Rate of Discharge Change on Urban Catchment Considering Climate Change

기후변화를 고려한 도시유역의 유출량 변화율 분석

  • 김호성 (인덕대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 황정윤 (연세대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 안정환 (인덕대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 정창삼 (인덕대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2018.01.06
  • Accepted : 2018.07.19
  • Published : 2018.10.01
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Abstract

Extreme rainfall events caused severe damage to human life and property due to the inundation in major urban areas. In particular, the increase in the intensity of rainfall due to climate change causes changes in the design flood discharge. As a result, it causes uncertainty in the design criteria of hydraulic structures. However, quantitative analysis results have not been provided due to the limitations of climate scenarios and the uncertainty in climate changes. Therefore, this research chose Bulgwangcheon basin as the target basin to analysis the discharge considering climate change. As the result, it is necessary to strengthen design standards since the amount of discharge increased by 14.2% even in the near future.

기후변화에 따른 극치강우사상은 과거와는 다른 양상의 강우사상으로 도심지역에 내수침수로 인한 막대한 인명 및 재산 피해를 발생시켰다. 특히 기후변화로 인한 강우강도의 증가는 설계홍수량의 변화를 초래하여 이로 인한 홍수 위험도 증가와 치수안전도 감소 등 수공구조물 설계기준에 불확실성을 증가시키는 원인이 되고 있다. 하지만 기후변화의 불확실성 및 기후시나리오의 한계로 인해 정량적 분석결과가 제시되지 못하는 상황이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 불광천유역을 대상유역으로 선정하여 기후변화를 고려한 유출량 분석을 수행하였다. 그 결과 가까운 미래인 S1 기간에서도 14.2%의 유출량이 증가하여 하수도설계 기준 강화가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

References

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