Korean Journal of Environmental Biology (환경생물)

Korean Society of Environmental Biology (한국환경생물학회)
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Predicting the Potential Habitat and Risk Assessment of Amaranthus patulus using MaxEnt

Maxent를 활용한 가는털비름(Amaranthus patulus)의 잠재서식지 예측 및 위험도 평가

  • Lee, Yong Ho (Department of Plant & Environmental Science, Hankyong National University) ;
  • Na, Chea Sun (Seed Conservation Division, Baekdudaegan National Arboretum) ;
  • Hong, Sun Hea (Department of Plant & Environmental Science, Hankyong National University) ;
  • Sohn, Soo In (National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA) ;
  • Kim, Chang Suk (National Institute of Crop Science, RDA) ;
  • Lee, In Yong (National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA) ;
  • Oh, Young Ju (Institute for Future Environmental Ecology Co., Ltd)
  • 이용호 (국립한경대학교 식물생명환경과학과) ;
  • 나채선 (국립백두대간수목원 종자보전연구실) ;
  • 홍선희 (국립한경대학교 식물생명환경과학과) ;
  • 손수인 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원) ;
  • 김창석 (농촌진흥청 국립식량과학원) ;
  • 이인용 (농촌진흥청 국립농업과학원) ;
  • 오영주 ((주)미래환경생태연구소)
  • Received : 2018.12.11
  • Accepted : 2018.12.20
  • Published : 2018.12.31
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Abstract

This study was conducted to predict the potential distribution and risk of invasive alien plant, Amaranthus patulus, in an agricultural area of South Korea. We collected 254 presence localities of A. patulus using field survey and literature search and stimulated the potential distribution area of A. patulus using maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) with six climatic variables. Two different kinds of agricultural risk index, raster risk index and regional risk index, were estimated. The 'raster risk index' was calculated by multiplying the potential distribution by the field area in $1{\times}1km$ and 'regional risk index' was calculated by multiplying the potential distribution by field area proportion in the total field of South Korea. The predicted potential distribution of A. patulus was almost matched with actual presence data. The annual mean temperature had the highest contribution for distribution modeling of A. patulus. Area under curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.711. The highest regions were Gwangju for potential distribution, Jeju for 'raster risk index' and Gyeongbuk for 'regional risk index'. This different ranks among the index showed the importance about the development of various risk index for evaluating invasive plant risk.

본 연구는 MaxEnt 모형을 활용하여 가는털비름의 잠재서식지를 예측하고, 예측된 잠재서식지와 밭면적을 활용하여 가는털비름의 잡초로서의 부정적 영향에 대한 위험도 지수를 예측하기 위하여 수행되었다. 가는털비름의 분포 예측을 위하여 MaxEnt 모형을 구축하기 위하여 남한 전국의 254지점의 분포 자료와 6개의 생물 기후 인자를 활용하였다. 밭농업에 대한 두가지 방법의 위험도 평가를 수행하였고 격자 위험도 지수(raster risk index)는 $1km^2$ 격자별로 잠재 서식지 분포 확률과 밭면적의 비율을 서로 곱하여 나타냈다. 지역 위험도 지수(regional risk index)는 잠재 서식지 분포 확률의 평균과 전체 밭 면적 중 지방자치단체의 실제 밭면적의 비율을 곱하여 산출하였다. MaxEnt모형으로 예측된 가는털비름의 잠재서식지는 실제서식지와 유사하게 나타났으며 모델의 AUC 값 또한 0.711로 좋은 설명력을 지니는 것으로 분석되었다. 잠재서식지 비율이 가장 높게 나타난 지역은 광주광역시였고 격자 위험도 지수가 가장 높게 나타난 지역은 제주도였다. 지역 위험도 지수가 가장 높게 나타난 지역은 경상북도였다. 잠재 서식지 비율과 위험도 지수의 서로 다른 순위는 외래식물의 위험성을 예측할 때 잠재 서식지 비율만을 활용하여 외래식물의 위험성을 예측하는 것보다 외래식물이 부정적 영향을 주는 대상과 결합된 위험도 지수의 필요성을 제시한다. 또한 격자 위험도 지수, 지역 위험도 지수의 서로 다른 순위는 분석의 필요성에 따라서 다양한 평가 기법이 개발될 필요성을 보여준다.

Keywords

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