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An Analysis on Shipment Structure of Field Tangerine in Jeju

노지감귤의 출하구조 분석

  • Ko, Seong-Bo (Dept. of Applied Economics in Jeju National University, Research Institute for Subtropical Agriculture and Animal Biotechnology & SARI)
  • 고성보 (제주대학교 산업응용경제학과.아열대농업생명과학연구소.친환경농업연구소)
  • Received : 2018.06.21
  • Accepted : 2018.07.06
  • Published : 2018.07.31

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the shipbuilding structure of field tangerine by ten days and by month. By estimating and analyzing the price flexibility function of field tangerines, this study determines whether the shipment control can stabilize and increase the income of field tangerine farmers and provides policy implication. Considering the overall market, a 1% increase in shipment volume indicates that the coefficient of price flexibility varies with ten days and month. The greatest decline is from late October to early January. Therefore, a greater necessity of shipment control is required during late October and early January. The coefficient of the dummy variable (DUM_Q) indicates the year in which the quality declines is statistically significant and sign. The coefficient of the dummy variable (DUM02) represents the year in which more than 7 days after the New Year holidays are in February is statistically significant and sign from early October to late January. Therefore, it can be seen that the necessity of shipment control is more required when New Year holidays are in February. The greatest decline in the coefficient of price flexibility is from October to December. Therefore, a greater necessity of shipment control is required during October and December. The signs of coefficients of DUM01 and DUM_Q dummy variable of the price flexibility function suggest that the need for shipment control is more important when quality is worse than better quality and that the necessity of shipment control is more required when New Year holidays are in February, respectively.

본 연구의 목적은 노지감귤의 출하구조를 순별, 월별로 구분하여 분석한다. 이를 위해 노지감귤의 가격신축성함수를 추정, 분석함으로써 어떻게 출하조절을 하는 것이 노지감귤농가의 소득을 안정시키고, 증대시킬 수 있는지를 모색하고, 이에 따른 정책적 함축성을 도출하는 것이다. 노지감귤 출하물량 1% 증가에 따른 순별 가격신축성은 시기에 따라 상이하게 나타나고 있는데, 10월 하순에서 1월 초순까지의 하락폭이 큰 것으로 나타나 이 시기의 출하조절의 필요성이 크다. 품질이 떨어지는 해를 나타내는 더미변수인 DUM_Q의 부호는 (-)이고, 통계적으로 유의미한 결과를 보여주고 있다. 설날 연후 7일 이상이 2월에 들어있는 해를 나타내는 더미변수인 DUM02의 10월 초순부터 1월 하순까지의 부호가 (-)를 보이고 있다. 이는 설날이 1월에 있는 경우보다 2월에 있는 경우가 물량증대에 따른 하락폭이 크다는 것을 나타낸다. 노지감귤의 출하물량 1% 증대에 따른 월별 가격신축성은 상이하게 나타나고 있는데, 10월에서 12월까지의 하락폭이 큰 것으로 나타나 이 시기의 출하조절의 필요성이 요구된다. 품질이 떨어지는 해를 나타내는 더미변수인 DUM_Q의 부호는 (-)이고, 통계적으로 유의미한 결과를 보여주고 있다. 설날 연후 7일 이상이 2월에 들어있는 해를 나타내는 더미변수인 DUM02의 10월부터 1월까지의 부호가 (-)를 보이고 있다. 이는 설날이 1월에 있는 경우보다 2월에 있는 경우가 물량증대에 따른 하락폭이 크다는 것을 나타낸다. 그리고 순별 및 월별 가격신축성함수의 더미변수인 DOM_Q와 DUM02의 부호가 음(-)을 보인다는 것은, 품질이 좋은 해보다 품질이 나쁜 경우에, 그리고 설날이 1월에 있는 경우보다 2월에 있는 경우에 출하조절의 필요성이 더 중요함을 의미한다.

Keywords

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