Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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Simulating Logistics Changes in South Korea Caused by Trans-Eurasia Logistics Passing through North Korea

북한 통관 유라시아 횡단 물류에 따른 국내 물류 변화 시뮬레이션 분석

  • Jung, Jae Un (Department of Management Information Systems, Dong-A University)
  • Received : 2018.05.29
  • Accepted : 2018.07.20
  • Published : 2018.07.28
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Abstract

Ever since Korea was geopolitically divided into North and South Korea in the 1940s, South Korea has depended on maritime transportation for global trade and logistics. Now, however, South Korea is preparing to develop a new global route for trans-Eurasia logistics passing through North Korea. Even though there are difficulties to overcome, South Korea expects that a new overland route, shorter than the existing seaways in the Europe-Asia section, will bring more frequent trade with more rapid and cost-effective logistics services in the future. Related to this issue, this study aims to proactively analyze dynamic logistics changes in South Korea when a trans-Korea railway is developed and linked with the trans-China railway and the trans-Siberian railway. This study employed a system dynamics simulation approach to model the logistics system in South Korea. The simulation results indicated that the traffic of the Uiwang inland container depot near the capital area may increase but the traffic of the Port of Busan may decrease. With supplementary research, consequently, follow-up studies on adjusting the traffic capacity in Korea are required to attain successful trans-Eurasia logistics by rail.

한국은 1940년대 남북분단 이후 국제 무역 및 물류를 위해 해상운송에 의존해 왔으며, 현재는 북한을 경유하는 유라시아 횡단 물류를 위해 새로운 경로의 개발을 준비하고 있다. 이를 위해 극복해야 할 많은 어려움이 존재하지만, 한국은 아시아와 유럽 구간의 기존 해상경로보다 짧은 새로운 육상경로가 앞으로 더욱 빠르고 비용 효과적인 물류서비스를 통해 더 많은 교역을 가져올 것으로 기대하고 있다. 이와 관련하여 본 연구는 한국종단철도가 개발되어 중국 및 시베리아 횡단철도와 연결된 상황에서의 국내물류 변화를 미리 분석해 보고자 한다. 국내 물류시스템의 모델링을 위해 시스템다이내믹스 시뮬레이션 기법을 사용하였다. 시뮬레이션 결과 수도권과 가까운 의왕 ICD의 물동량은 증가하는 반면, 부산항의 물동량은 감소할 가능성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 철도를 활용한 유라시아 횡단 물류의 성공을 위해서는 본 연구의 보완과 더불어 국내 물동량 처리 용량의 조정에 관한 후속연구가 필요하다.

Keywords

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