Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Determinant of the Elderly Poverty Using Decision Tree Analysis

의사결정나무분석을 활용한 노인빈곤 결정요인 분석

  • 박미영 (대구대학교 사회복지학과)
  • Received : 2018.06.18
  • Accepted : 2018.07.20
  • Published : 2018.07.28
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study is to examine the determinants of the elderly poverty by using the Decision-tree analysis. In line with this perspective, this study includes individual characteristics, family characteristics, working characteristics, and periodic income characteristics after retirement as determinants for senior poverty. The study uses data from the Korean Retirement and Income Study based on panel survey and employs the Decision-tree analysis to explain the causes of the elderly poverty. As the result of analysis, earned wage has the greatest effect on the elderly poverty. Depending on status of the earned wage, there are 2 different variable groups. One with no earned wage includes public pension, education, and residence, paid employee and gender in the other with earned wage. Based on the analytical results, the study suggests measures to address the elderly poverty.

본 연구는 6차 년도 국민노후보장패널조사 자료를 활용하여 노인빈곤에 영향을 미치는 원인을 규명하고자 한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 성별, 연령, 교육수준, 건강상태와 같은 노인의 개인적 특성, 거주지역, 가족 구성 형태와 같은 노인가구의 특성, 근로소득 유무, 임금근로자 여부와 같은 노인 근로적 특성, 그리고 공적연금수급 여부, 사적연금수급 여부, 사회보장급여수급 여부, 부동산 소득 여부, 개인연금형태 수입 여부와 같은 은퇴 후 근로 외의 발생소득 특성을 노인빈곤 변인으로 선정하였다. 본 연구는 6차 년도 조사대상 5,254가구 중 65세 이상 그리고 노인가구를 분류한 후 결측값이 포함된 것을 제외한 총 3,418명이 분석에 활용하였다. 의사결정나무분석 결과, 노인빈곤에 영향을 미치는 가장 중요한 변인은 근로소득 유무로 나타났다. 근로소득이 없는 빈곤노인의 경우 공적연금수급 여부, 교육수준, 거주지역이 그리고 근로소득이 있는 빈곤노인의 경우 임금근로자 여부와 성별이 빈곤에 영향을 미치는 변인으로 확인되었다. 이런 분석결과를 토대로, 노인빈곤을 해소하기 위한 방안으로 Senior re-employment 노동환경 조성, 무료 직업교육 프로그램 개발 제공, 공적연금 수급 확대 및 미래연금수급 안전성 보장 및 강화 차원의 현행 연금제도 개선 필요성, 여성 노인 우선적 고용 및 임금근로 조건에 의한 노인 고용 업체 인센티브 제공 등을 제안하였다.

Keywords

References

  1. http://www.yonhapnewstv.co.kr/MYH20180418002600038/?did=1947m
  2. T. W. Kim, J. W. Jung & J. M. Lee. (2015). A Study of Elderly Poverty and Depression: Focusing on the Multidimensional Concept of Poverty. Health and Social Welfare Review, 35(3), 71-102. https://doi.org/10.15709/hswr.2015.35.3.71
  3. S. H. Lee. (2015). Change in Household Consumption Expenditure Structure in 2015: Based on Effect of Increasing Elderly Population on Economy. KB Knowledge Vitamin, 15-19.
  4. S. H. Seok. (2010). An Analysis on the Anti-poverty Effectiveness of the Basic Old-Age Pension System. Journal of Welfare for the Aged, 50, 335-352.
  5. J. E. Seok. (2010). Impacts on the Effectiveness and the Efficiency of Poverty Alleviation of Public Pension and Basic Old-Aged Pension: Seoul Metropolitan City. Social Welfare Policy, 37(3), 193-214. https://doi.org/10.15855/swp.2010.37.3.193
  6. K. D. Nam. (2010). Korean Elders' Poverty and Basic Old Age Pension's Measures for Mitigating Their Poverty. Welfare Administration Study, 26, 235-260.
  7. S. H. Him. (2016). An Analysis on the Poverty Reduction Effects of Basic Pension. Health and Welfare Policy Forum, 236, 82-97.
  8. H. G. Jung, J. A. Jo, H. Y. Oh, G. J. Byeon & S. H. Moon. (1998). The 1998 Elderly Living Condition Survey. Korean Institute for Health and Social Affairs.
  9. H. S. Choi & Y. K. Ryu. (2003). A Study on the Levels, Trends, and Composition of the Old-Age Poverty in Korea. Journal of Korean Gerontological Society, 23(3), 143-160.
  10. B. E. Hong. (2005). Factors Influencing the Economic Status of the Elderly in Korea. Korean Journal of Social Welfare, 57(4), 275-290.
  11. O. G. Choi. (2007). Factors Influencing Poverty of the Elderly: Utilizing the Panel Data Model. Korean Journal of Social Welfare, 59(1), 5-25.
  12. J. S. Choi. (2009). Study on the Cause and Improvement Measures of Poverty in Seniors. Korean Journal of Local Government & Administration Studies, 23(1), 457-467.
  13. S. H. S & H. S. Kim. (2012). Determinants of Poverty in Elderly-Headed Households in Korea. Korean Journal of Public Finance, 5(3), 99-124.
  14. M. J. Hwang. (2016). Determinant of Poverty among the Elderly Living Alone: Using Decision Tree Analysis. Journal of The Korea Knowledge Information Technology Society, 11(4), 351-358.
  15. D. K. McLaughlin & L. Jensen. (2000). Work History and US Elders' Transitions into Poverty. The Gerontologist, 40(4), 469-479. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/40.4.469
  16. K. A. Rupp, A. Strand & P. S. Davies. (2003). Poverty among Elderly women: Assessing SSI Options to Strengthen Social Security Reform. Journal of Gerontology, 58B(6), s359-s368.
  17. D. K. McLaughlin & L. Jensen. (1994). Poverty Dynamics among U.S. Elders: Implications of Occupation, Gender and Residence. paper prepared for presentation at the 1994 Meetings of the Population Association of America.
  18. R. B. Schiller. (2003). The Economics of Poverty and Discrimination. Prentice Hall.
  19. K. McGarry & R. F. Schoeni. (2005). Widow Poverty and Out-of-Pocket Medical Expenditures near the End of Life. Journals of Gerontology, 60, s160-s168. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/60.3.S160
  20. K. Z. Hong. (2004). Analyzing the Length of Poverty Spells. Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies, 24, 187-210.
  21. H. J. Jin. (2010). Analysis for Consumer Groups Using Decision Tree Model: Focused on Tangerine Consumption. Korea Agricultural Research, 51(1), 19-40.