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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction of GloSea5 Model: Part 2. Stratospheric Sudden Warming

GloSea5 모형의 계절내-계절 예측성 검정: Part 2. 성층권 돌연승온

  • Song, Kanghyun (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Hera (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Son, Seok-Woo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Sang-Wook (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kang, Hyun-Suk (Earth System Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Hyun, Yu-Kyung (Earth System Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 송강현 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 김혜라 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 손석우 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 김상욱 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 강현석 (국립기상과학원 지구시스템연구과) ;
  • 현유경 (국립기상과학원 지구시스템연구과)
  • Received : 2018.02.20
  • Accepted : 2018.04.27
  • Published : 2018.06.30
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Abstract

The prediction skills of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events and its impacts on the tropospheric prediction skills in global seasonal forecasting system version 5 (GloSea5), an operating subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) model in Korea Meteorological Administration, are examined. The model successfully predicted SSW events with the maximum lead time of 11.8 and 13.2 days in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean squared skill score (MSSS), respectively. The prediction skills are mainly determined by phase error of zonal wave-number 1 with a minor contribution of zonal wavenumber 2 error. It is also found that an enhanced prediction of SSW events tends to increase the tropospheric prediction skills. This result suggests that well-resolved stratospheric processes in GloSea5 can improve S2S prediction in the troposphere.

Keywords

References

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