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A Study of Investment effectiveness about Equity Linked Securities(ELS) ; focused on Step-down type ELS

주가연계증권(ELS)의 투자효과에 관한 연구 : 스텝다운형 ELS를 중심으로

  • Jung, Heeseog (Sungkyul University, Department of Business Administration) ;
  • Kim, Sunje (Sungkyul University, Department of Business Administration)
  • Received : 2017.10.08
  • Accepted : 2018.03.15
  • Published : 2018.03.31

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to present the direction of ELS investment by analyzing the actual investment return of the ELS commodities and analyzing the investment effect of ELS that investors have felt unsatisfactory at financial marketing service. The research method is based on the step-down type ELS. We calculated the probability of achieving early redemption condition and maturity repayment condition, early redemption estimated yield, and maturity repayment estimated yield. As the study result, the probability of achieving 100% of the early redemption condition was 74.5%, and the probability of the early redemption condition 95% was 83.0%, 90% was 89.5%, 85% was 92.5%, and 80% was 96.5% respectively. In the case of the lowest 75%, the probability of holding to maturity is analyzed to be 2.5%, and the probability of early redemption is high. The probability of the stock price growth within 65% of the maturity repayment condition was 98.5% and the probability of the stock price growth within 60%~45% of the maturity repayment condition was 100%. 65% of maturity repayment condition was analyzed as 1.5% risk of principal loss, and the probability of achieving the committed yield of maturity was high. As a key measure of ELS investment, it is advantageous to select a commodity with a low rate of maturity repayment and a high rate of early redemption.

본 연구의 목적은 금융마케팅 서비스에서 투자자들이 미흡하게 느끼는 ELS 상품이 실제로 획득할 수 있는 수익률이 얼마나 되는지를 분석하여 ELS에 대한 투자효과를 규명함으로써 ELS 투자방향을 제시하는데 있다. 연구방법은 스텝다운형 ELS를 대상으로 2001년 1월부터 2017년 8월까지 200개월 동안 만기 3년의 조기상환조건 달성확률, 만기상환조건 달성확률, 조기상환추정수익률, 만기상환추정수익률을 산출하였다. 분석결과는 조기상환조건 100% 달성확률은 74.5%이었으며, 조기상환조건 95%는 달성확률이 83.0%, 90%는 89.5%, 85%는 92.5%, 80%는 96.5%, 75%는 97.5% 이었다. 가장 낮은 75% 경우에 만기까지 보유할 확률은 2.5%인 것으로 분석되어 조기상환조건이 달성될 확률이 높았다. 만기도래했을 때 주가상승률이 만기상환조건 65% 이내에 있을 확률은 98.5%이었으며, 만기상환조건 60%, 58%, 57%, 55%, 50%, 45%는 달성확률이 100% 이었다. 만기상환조건 65%는 원금손실 리스크가 1.5%정도 있는 것으로 분석되어서 만기에 약정된 수익률을 달성할 확률이 높았다. ELS 투자의 유의방안으로는 만기상환조건의 비율이 낮은 상품을 선택하고, 조기상환조건 비율이 높은 상품을 선택해야 하며, 주가지수가 박스권 형성이 예상 될 때 투자하는 것이 유리하다.

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