Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security (한국방재안전학회논문집)

Korean Society of Disaster & Security (한국방재안전학회)
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Development for Prediction Model of Disaster Risk through Try and Error Method : Storm Surge

시행 착오법을 활용한 재난 위험도 예측모델 개발 : 폭풍해일

  • Received : 2018.11.27
  • Accepted : 2018.12.19
  • Published : 2018.12.31
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Abstract

The storm surge is caused by an typhoons and it is not easy to predict the location, strength, route of the storm. Therefore, research using a scenario for storms occurrence has been conducted. In Korea, hazard maps for various scenarios were produced using the storm surge numerical simulation. Such a method has a disadvantage in that it is difficult to predict when other scenario occurs, and it is difficult to cope with in real time because the simulation time is long. In order to compensate for this, we developed a method to predict the storm surge damage by using research database. The risk grade prediction for the storm surge was performed predominantly in the study area of the East coast. In order to estimate the equation, COMSOL developed by COMSOL AB Corporation was utilized. Using some assumptions and limitations, the form of the basic equation was derived. the constants and coefficients in the equation were estimated by the trial and error method. Compared with the results, the spatial distribution of risk grade was similar except for the upper part of the map. In the case of the upper part of the map, it was shown that the resistance coefficient, k was calculated due to absence of elevation data. The SIND model is a method for real-time disaster prediction model and it is expected that it will be able to respond quickly to disasters caused by abnormal weather.

태풍에 의해 발생하는 폭풍해일은 태풍의 경로, 강도, 발생위치 등을 예측하기가 어려운 실정이기 때문에 발생 시나리오를 기반으로 연구가 수행되어왔다. 국내는 다양한 시나리오에 대해 수치모의를 수행하였고 그 결과를 침수 예측지도로 제작하였다. 하지만, 이 같은 방법은 수행한 시나리오 외에 발생가능한 모든 경우에 대해 예측하기 어렵고, 실제로 수치모의 수행시간이 길기 때문에 실시간으로 대응하기 어렵다는 단점이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존의 데이터베이스를 활용하여 폭풍해일의 위험도를 예측하는 방법을 개발하였다. 동해안 지역을 대상으로 폭풍해일에 의한 위험도 예측을 수행하였고 예측을 위한 방정식을 산정하기 위해 COMSOL AB사에서 개발한 COMSOL을 이용하였다. 몇 가지 가정사항과 제한조건으로 기본방정식을 유도하였으며 방정식의 계수와 상수는 시행착오법으로 도출하였다. 그 결과, 해일에 의한 침수 예측지도와 공간적 분포는 지도의 상부를 제외하면 매우 유사하게 나타났다. 오차가 큰 지도 상부의 경우 기초 데이터로 사용한 지도의 해상도로 인해 저항상수 k의 값이 제대로 반영되지 못한 것으로 판단된다. SIND 모형은 실시간 예측이 가능한 모형으로 향후 모형의 정확성을 향상시킨다면 이상기후로 인해 재난이 발생하였을 경우 빠르게 대처가 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Concept design of natural disaster prediction model

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Fig. 2. Method to develop representative equation using COMSOL

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Fig. 3. Research Area & Results(Storm Surge)

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Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of k

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Fig. 5. Sectioning of boundary condition

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Fig. 6. Estimation of D0

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Fig. 7. Result of SIND model for storm surge

Table 1. Equations for linear model problems in COMSOL

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Table 2. SIND for tsunami in coefficient form

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Table 3. Values of coefficient in SIND for storm surge

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Table 4. Results of shape similarity

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