Fig. 1. Basic concept of application of the uncertainty delta method (UDM) in the climate change impact assessment
Fig. 2. The relative importance of each source of uncertainty in climate change impact assessment: (a) Uncertainty changes significantly with region, forecast lead time, and the amount of any temporal meaning applied, (b) Fractional uncertainty in decadal mean surface air temperature prediction for global mean
Fig. 3. Uncertainty propagation in the climate change impact assessment by employing the UDM
Fig. 4. Fractional uncertainties of the three sources of uncertainty and total uncertainty in the climate change impac assessment over lead time (2030∼2059)
Table 1. Characteristics of the study basin
Table 2. Description of emission scenario, GCM, downscaling technique, and hydrological model stages in the climate change impact assessment
Table 3. Precipitation and streamflow projection results from January 2030 to December 2059(a) Precipitation projection
Table 4. Uncertainty quantification results for each stage in the climate change impact assessment using the uncertainty delta method (UDM)
Table 5. Uncertainty quantification of three uncertainty sources in the climate change impact assessment using the fractional uncertainty method (FUM)
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