Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회지)

Korean Society on Water Environment (한국물환경학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Potential Impacts of Future Extreme Storm Events on Streamflow and Sediment in Soyang-dam Watershed

기후변화에 따른 미래 극한호우사상이 소양강댐 유역의 유량 및 유사량에 미치는 영향

  • Han, Jeong Ho (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Dong Jun (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kang, Boosik (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Dankook University) ;
  • Chung, Se Woong (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University) ;
  • Jang, Won Seok (University of Colorado Boulder) ;
  • Lim, Kyoung Jae (Department of Regional Infrastructures Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Jonggun (Institute of Agriculture and Life Science, Kangwon National University)
  • Received : 2016.12.12
  • Accepted : 2017.03.14
  • Published : 2017.03.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The objective of this study are to analyze changes in future rainfall patterns in the Soyang-dam watershed according to the RCP 4.5 scenario of climate change. Second objective is to project peak flow and hourly sediment simulated for the future extreme rainfall events using the SWAT model. For these, accuracy of SWAT hourly simulation for the large scale watershed was evaluated in advance. The results of model calibration showed that simulated peak flow matched observation well with acceptable average relative error. The results of future rainfall pattern changes analysis indicated that extreme storm events will become more severe and frequent as climate change progresses. Especially, possibility of occurrence of large scale extreme storm events will be greater on the periods of 2030-2040 and 2050-2060. In addition, as shown in the SWAT hourly simulation for the future extreme storm events, more severe flood and turbid water can happen in the future compared with the most devastating storm event which occurred by the typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 year. Thus, countermeasures against future extreme storm event and turbid water are needed to cope with climate change.

Keywords

References

  1. Abdulla, F., Eshtawi, T., and Assaf, H. (2009). Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed, Water Resources Management, 23(10), 2051-2068. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9369-y
  2. Ahn, S. R., Park, G. A., Jang, C. H., and Kim, S. J. (2013). Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in a Mixed Forest Catchment Using Spatially Calibrated SWAT Model, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 46(6), 569-583. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.6.569
  3. Arnold, J. G. (1992). Spatial Scale Variability in Model Development and Parameterization, Ph. D. Dissertation, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, U.S.
  4. Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., and Williams, J. R. (1998). Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment: Part I: Model Development, Journal of American Water Resources Association, 34(1), 73-89. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x
  5. Beyene, T., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Kabat, P. (2010). Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile River Basin: Implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios, Climatic Change, 100(3-4), 433-461. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9693-0
  6. Choi, Y., Kim, M. G., Kim, Y. J., and Park, C. (2011). Characteristics and Changes of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Republic of Korea, 1954-2010: Their Magnitude, Frequency, and Percent to Total Precipitation, Journal of Climate Research, 6(1), 45-58. [Korean Literature]
  7. Chung, I. W., Eum, H. I., Kim, O. Y., and Lee, E. J. (2015). Generation of MME Climate and High Resolution Mdium and Long Term Hydrology Scenario based on AR5 RCP and Development of Evaluation Method, Water for future, Magazine of Korea Water Resources Association, 48(5), 10-16. [Korean Literature]
  8. Chung, S. W., Lee, J. H., Lee, H. S., and Jin, M. S. (2011). Uncertainty of Discharge-SS Relationship Used for Turbid Flow Modeling, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 44(12), 991-1000. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.12.991
  9. Cuo, L., Lettenmaier, D. P., Alberti, M., and Richey, J. E. (2009). Effects of a Century of Land Cover and Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Hydrological Processes, 23(6), 907-933. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7228
  10. Huff, F. A. (1967). Time Distribution of Rainfall in Heavy Storms, Water Resources Research, 3(4), 1007-1019. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR003i004p01007
  11. Jang, S. S., Ahn, S. R., Choi, J. D., and Kim, S. J. (2015). Hourly SWAT Watershed Modeling for Analyzing Reduction Effect of Nonpoint Source Pollution, Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 57(1), 89-97. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2015.57.1.089
  12. Jang, S. S. and Kim, S. J. (2016). Comparison of Hourly and Daily SWAT Results for the Evaluation of Runoff Simulation Performance, Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, 58(5), 57-67. [Korean Literature]
  13. Jeong, H. G., Kim, S. J., and Ha, R. (2013). Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Storage Behavior of Chungju and the Regulation Dams Using SWAT Model, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 46(12), 1235-1247. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.12.1235
  14. Jeong, J., Kannan, N., Arnold, J., Glick, R., Gosselink, L., and Srinivasan, R. (2010). Development and Integration of Subhourly Rainfall-runoff Modeling Capability within a Watershed Model, Water Resources Management, 24(15), 4505-4527. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9670-4
  15. Joo, J., Lee, J., Kim, J. H., Jun, H., and Jo, D. (2013). Interevent Time Definition Setting Procedure for Urban Drainage Systems, Water, 6(1), 45-58. https://doi.org/10.3390/w6010045
  16. Kim, S. Y. (2015). Analysis of the Future Discharge in Soyang River Dam Watershed Using Climate Change Scenarios, Master's Thesis, Kyonggi University. [Korean Literature]
  17. Kwon, H. H., Sivakumar, B., Moon, Y. I., and Kim, B. S. (2011). Assessment of Change in Design Flood Frequency under Climate Change using a Multivariate Downscaling Model and a Precipitation-runoff Model, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 25, 567-581. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0422-z
  18. Lee, M. H., So, J. M. and Bae, D. H. (2016). Development of climate change uncertainty assessment method for projecting the water resources, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 49(8), pp. 657-671. [Korean Literature] https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.8.657
  19. Lee, J. Y. (2008). A Hydrological Analysis of Current Status of Turbid Water in Soyang River and Its Mitigation, Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment, 13(6), pp. 85-92. [Korean Literature]
  20. Maharjan, G. R., Park, Y. S., Kim, N. W., Shin, D. S., Choi, J. W., Hyun, G. W., Jeon, J. H., OK, Y. S., and Lim, K. J. (2013). Evaluation of SWAT Sub-daily Runoff Estimation at Small Agricultural Watershed in Korea, Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering, 7(1), 109-119. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11783-012-0418-7
  21. Mein, R. G. and Larson, C. L. (1973). Modeling Infiltration during a Steady Rain, Water Resources Research, 9(2), 384-394. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR009i002p00384
  22. Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MCT). (2000). Regional Temporal Distribution of Design Storm of Korea.
  23. Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTMA). (2011). Design Flood Estimation Method.
  24. Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTMA). (2013). Design Flood Estimation Tips. [Korean Literature]
  25. Neitsch, S. L., Williams, J. R., Arnold, J. G., and Kiniry, J. R. (2011). Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation Version 2009, Texas Water Resources Institute.
  26. Park, K. W., Lee, J. J., Kwon, D. J., and Kim, J. H. (2014). A Comparative Study on Inflow Calculation of Soyanggangdam by Climate Change, Proceedings of 2014 Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 985-986. [Korean Literature]
  27. Ryu, J., Jang, W. S., Kim, J., Choi, J. D., Engle, B. A., Yang, J. E., and Lim, K. J. (2016). Development of a Watershed-Scale Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment Model with the Asymptotic Curve Number Regression Equation, Water, 8(4), 153. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8040153
  28. Ryu, J., Jang, W. S., Kim, J., Jung, Y., Engel, B. A., and Lim, K. J. (2016). Development of Field Pollutant Load Estimation Module and Linkage of QUAL2E with Watershed-Scale L-THIA ACN Model, Water, 8(7), 292. https://doi.org/10.3390/w8070292
  29. Verma, S., Bhattarai, R., Bosch, N. S., Cooke, R. C., Kalita, P. K., and Markus, M. (2015). Climate Change Impacts on Flow, Sediment and Nutrient Export in a Great Lakes Watershed Using SWAT, CLEAN.Soil, Air, Water, 43(11), 1464-1474.
  30. Warrick, J. A., Madej, M. A., Goni, M. A., and Wheatcroft, R. A. (2013). Trends in the Suspended-Sediment Yields of Coastal Rivers of Northern California, 1955-2010, Journal of Hydrology, 489, 108-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.041
  31. Yang, H. (2007). Water Balance Change of Watershed by Climate Change, The Korean Geographical Society, 42(3), 405-420. [Korean Literature]
  32. Yang, X., Liu, Q., He, Y., Luo, X., and Zhang, X. (2016). Comparison of Daily and Sub-daily SWAT Models for Daily Streamflow Simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin of China, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 30(3), 959-972. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1099-0
  33. Yum, K. T., Ko, Y. S., Lee, P. J., and Kim, H. S. (2011). Current Status of Turbidity Reduction Planning in Soyanggang-dam, Water for future, Magazine of Korea Water Resources Association, 44(12), 93-97. [Korean Literature]