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Beta 함수 모형을 이용한 국내 옥수수 품종의 출사기 예측

Prediction of Silking Date of Corn Hybrids Using Beta Function Model in South Korea

  • 심교문 (국립농업과학원 농업환경부) ;
  • 김용석 (국립농업과학원 농업환경부) ;
  • 이진석 (국립식량과학원 중부작물부) ;
  • 정명표 (국립농업과학원 농업환경부) ;
  • 최인태 (국립농업과학원 농업환경부) ;
  • 김호정 (국립농업과학원 농업환경부)
  • Shim, Kyo-Moon (Department of Agricultural Environment, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Yong-Seok (Department of Agricultural Environment, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Lee, Jin-Seok (Department of Central Area Crop Science, National Institute of Crop Science) ;
  • Jung, Myung-Pyo (Department of Agricultural Environment, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Choi, In-tae (Department of Agricultural Environment, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Hojung (Department of Agricultural Environment, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences)
  • 투고 : 2017.08.27
  • 심사 : 2017.09.20
  • 발행 : 2017.09.30

초록

수원 등 4개의 시험포장에서 2008년부터 2013년까지 6년 동안 조사한 옥수수 품종의 생물계절(출사기 등) 자료와 시험포장 인근의 기상관측소에서 측정한 시간별 온도자료를 활용하여 온도기반의 Beta 함수 모형을 개발하였다. Beta 함수 모형을 이용하여 2종의 옥수수 품종에 대한 2014년과 2015년의 출사기 예측을 4개 조사지점에 대해서 각각 수행하였고, 그 결과를 활용하여 모형의 성능을 평가하였다. 모형에 의해 추정한 옥수수의 출사기는 시험포장에서 관측한 출사기보다 이르게 모의하였지만, 이들의 상관계수(r=0.859)는 높은 것으로 확인되었다. 모형의 성능은 지역과 연도에 따라서 다르게 평가되었는데, 이는 모형에 활용된 평균 모수의 표준편차가 커서 나타난 현상으로 추정되었고, 모수의 표준편차가 큰 현상은 시험포장의 기상관측자료의 부재로 다소 떨어진 인근의 기상관측자료를 활용한 것이 한 원인으로 판단되었다.

A temperature-based Beta function model was developed for corn hybrids (Zea mays L.). The beta function based on the hourly temperature was fitted to the phenology data (silking date) obtained for six years from 2008 through 2013 at four survey sites. Using the Beta function model, silking dates for two corn hybrids with the different ecotype ('Danok3', 'Ilmichal') were estimated over two years from 2014 through 2015 at four sites, and then the performance of the model was evaluated based on the data for the same period. The silking dates estimated by the model were predicted earlier than those observed at survey sites. Still, the correlation between estimates and observation was relatively high (r=0.859). The accuracy of the model differed by the survey site and the year, which was likely due to the considerably large standard deviation of the parameter calibrated in this study.

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참고문헌

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