디지털융복합연구 (Journal of Digital Convergence)

  • 제15권9호
  • /
  • Pages.189-200
  • /
  • 2017
  • /
  • 2713-6434(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2713-6442(eISSN)
한국디지털정책학회 (The Society of Digital Policy and Management)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

일대일로 참여국가에 대한 중국의 무역 의존성 분석과 시사점

Analysis of China's trade dependency on the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative

  • 송민근 (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원)
  • Song, Min-Geun (Graduate School of Logistics, Incheon National University)
  • 투고 : 2017.07.31
  • 심사 : 2017.09.20
  • 발행 : 2017.09.28
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

본 연구는 중국과 일대일로 사업에 참여하고 있는 국가들의 상호간 무역 의존성을 분석하여 특징과 시사점을 제시하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 하였다. 연구방법으로는 국제통화기금(IMF)과 중국 국가통계국(NBS)에서 각각 200여 국가에 대한 수출입 및 GDP자료를 수집하고 90년대부터 2015년까지 추이를 살폈으며, 무역의존도에서 단방향이 아닌 양방향의 상호 의존성을 분석했다. 개별 국가 GDP에서 중국 무역의존도가 15%이상으로 매우 높은 국가들이 34개국 이상이며, 중국대외 무역에서 미국 및 일본에 대한 수출입 비중이 낮아지고, 중동, 남아프리카, 남미, 동남아시아 등 지역에 대한 비중이 높아지고 있다. 또한, 중국은 일대일로에 참여하는 국가그룹에 대해서 90년대부터 현재까지 약 60% 내외의 수출입비중과 2~30%수준의 무역의존도를 보이고 있다. 일대일로 사업이 본격화되고 있는 시점에서 본 연구는 일대일로 사업 환경 및 중국을 둘러싼 국가들의 무역 관계에 대한 이해, 대응방안 수립 등의 관점에서 의의를 가질 것이며, 일대일로 사업이 진행됨에 따라 주요 국가와 중국의 상호 간 무역 의존성은 더욱 심화될 것으로 예상된다.

The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of China's trade relationships with and dependency on the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative and to present some implications. This study collected annual total imports, exports, and GDP data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 198 countries and the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) on 221 countries from 1995 to 2015. China's imports and exports have expanded considerably from the mid-1990s to the present, and China's dependence on imports and exports with the US and Japan has declined, while its dependence on the Middle East, South Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia has increased. China has a very high level of dependence on imports from and exports to the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative, and as the Belt and Road project progresses, the mutual trade dependency between China and the other participating countries is expected to strengthen and expand.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Korea international trade association, "China's trade structure and implications (2000-2015)", p. 5, 2016.
  2. Korea trade investment promotion agency, "China's imports and exports, Korea's imports and exports to China and its implications," p. 6, 2015.
  3. S. K. Kwon, " Legal Issues and Policy Implications of Electronic Commerce Chapters of the Korea.China FTA", Journal of Digital Convergence, Vol. 13, No. 10, pp. 9-17, 2015. https://doi.org/10.14400/JDC.2015.13.10.9
  4. Y. S. Choo, "The Prospect of the China's 'One Belt, One Road' Strategy in Southeast Asia", Journal of International Relations, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 169-190, 2015. https://doi.org/10.15235/jir.2015.12.18.2.169
  5. L. Bonatti, A. Fracasso, "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 25, pp. 1-32, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2013.01.004
  6. S. I. Choi and J. H. Cho, "An Analysis on Taiwanese Trade after ECFA", Journal of Ocean Development, Vol. 25, pp. 111-129, 2016.
  7. S. O. Han, "An Analysis on the Realities and Features in North Korea's Degree of Dependence upon Chinese Trade since the 1990s: In Connection with the Implication and Problem Awaiting Solution to Establish a Korean Peninsula Economic Community", The Journal of Peace Studies, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 111-141, 2015. https://doi.org/10.14363/kaps.2015.16.4.111
  8. Y. Y. Kim, "Expanding economic influence of China, North Korea and South Korea's Challenges", Journal of Policy Sciences, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 24-55, 2010.
  9. H. B. Lee and D. Y. Oh, "Changes in the Industrial Linkage and Trade Dependency between Korea, China and Japan", The Journal of Korean Association of Modern Japanology, Vol. 40, pp. 463-476, 2014.
  10. C. P. Bown and R. McCUlloch, "U.S.-Japan and U.S.-China trade conflict: Export growth, reciprocity, and the international trading system", Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 20, pp. 669-687, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2009.09.009
  11. T. W. Chung, "A Study on Trade Structure Analysis between Korea and GCC(Gulf Cooperation Council) Countries", Journal of Digital Convergence, Vol. 14, No. 11, pp. 135-142, 2016. https://doi.org/10.14400/JDC.2016.14.11.135
  12. X. Jin, D. D. Li, S. Y. Wu, "How will China shape the world economy?", China Economic Review, Vol. 40, pp. 272-280, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2016.07.006
  13. W. J. Kim, "The Impact of China on Indonesian Economy", The Journal of Northeast Asian Economics Studies, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 1-36, 2014.
  14. S. Peyrouse, "Discussing China: Sinophilia and sinophobia in Central Asia", Journal of Eurasian Studies, Vol. 7, pp. 14-23, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2015.10.003
  15. J. Y. Shin, "The arrival of the new normal era in China and its economic strategic change against Central Asia", The Review of Eurasian Studies, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 15-32, 2016. https://doi.org/10.31203/aepa.2016.13.4.002
  16. I. H. Song and G. Y. Lee(2012), "A Study of Chinese Peaceful Rise and East Asian Regional Cooperation", International Commerce and Information Review, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 75-96, 2012.
  17. B. Vahalik, "Regional Bilateral Trade Analysis of the European Union, China and ASEAN", Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 12, pp. 709-717, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00397-9
  18. S. Mcdonald, S. Robinson, K. Therfelder, "Asian Growth and Trade Poles: India, China, and East and Southeast Asia", World Development, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 210-234, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.06.013
  19. Vianna, "The impact of exports to China on Latin American growth", Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 47, pp. 58-66, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2016.10.002
  20. "Trade of Goods, Values of Exports/imports, FOB", International Monetary Fund, www.imf.org, July 1. 2017.
  21. "11-6. Value of Imports and Exports by Country of Origin/Destination", National Bureau of the People's Republic of China, www.stats.gov.cn, July 1, 2017.