DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

OPTIMAL CONTROL ANALYSIS FOR THE MERS-COV OUTBREAK: SOUTH KOREA PERSPECTIVES

  • LEE, DONGHO (DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS GRADUATE SCHOOL, KYUNGPOOK NATIONAL UNIVERSITY) ;
  • MASUD, M.A. (INSTITUTE OF NATURAL SCIENCE, UNITED INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY) ;
  • KIM, BYUL NIM (DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS, KYUNGPOOK NATIONAL UNIVERSITY) ;
  • OH, CHUNYOUNG (DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS EDUCATION, CHONNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY)
  • Received : 2017.06.29
  • Accepted : 2017.09.14
  • Published : 2017.09.25

Abstract

This paper presents the mathematical model for the MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea, and the optimal control for two intervention strategies (contact, hospitalization) is implemented. After the MERS-CoV outbreak, hospitalizing infected individuals did not help to prevent the spread of infection. However, the intervention to control contact was effective. It was effective the intervention to controlling both of contact and hospitalization of infection population.

References

  1. Al-Tawfiq JA, Hinedi K, Ghandour J, et al., Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: a case-control study of hospitalized patients, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 59 (2014), 160-165. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciu226
  2. Cho HW, Chu C., Outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome in Korea?, Osong Public Health Res Perspect, 6 (2015), 219-223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.08.005
  3. Chowell G, Blumberg S, Simonsen L, et al., Synthesizing data and models for the spread of MERS-CoV, 2013: Key role of index cases and hospital transmission, Epidemics, 9 (2014), 40-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.011
  4. Chowell G, Abdirizak F, Lee S, et al., Transmission characteristics of MERS and SARS in the healthcare setting: a comparative study, BMC Medicine, 13 (2015), 210. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-015-0450-0
  5. Choi JW, Kim KH, Cho YM, et al., Current epidemiological situation of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus clusters and implications for public health response in South Korea, J.Korean Med Assoc, 58 (2015), 487-497. https://doi.org/10.5124/jkma.2015.58.6.487
  6. P. van den Driessche and James Watmough, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission, Mathematical Biosciences, 180 (2002), 29-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00108-6
  7. Drosten C, Seilmaier M, Corman VM, et al., Clinical features and virological analysis of a case of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection, Lancet Infect Dis, 13 (2013), 745-751. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70154-3
  8. Fisman DN, Tuite AR., The epidemiology of MERS-CoV. Lancet Infect Dis, 14 (2014), 6-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(13)70283-4
  9. Guery B, Poissy J, Mansouf LE, et al., Clinical features and viral diagnosis of two cases of infection with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: a report of nosocomial transmission, Lancet, 381 (2013), 2265-2272. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60982-4
  10. O. Diekmann and J.A.P. Heesterbeek, Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis, and Interpretation, Wiley Series, John Wiley and Sons, USA, 2000.
  11. Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus outbreak in the Republic of Korea, Osong Public Health Res Perspect, 6 (2015), 269-278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2015.08.006
  12. Memish ZA, Zumla AI, Al-Hakeem RF, et al. Family cluster of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infections, New Engl J Med, 368 (2013), 2487-2494. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1303729
  13. Pontryagin, L.S., Boltyanskii, V.G., Gamkrelidze, R.V. and Mishchenko E.F., The Mathematical Theory of Optimal Process, Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, 1986.
  14. Suzanne Lenhart, J. T.Workman, Optimal control applied to Biological Models, Chapman & Hall/CRC press, Taylor & Francis Group, 2007.
  15. Yunhwan Kim, Sunmi Lee, Chaeshin Chu et al.,The Characteristics of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Transmission Dynamics in South Korea, Osong Public Health Res Perspect, 7 (2016), 49-55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.01.001, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2016.01.001
  16. http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/262538.php,(2017.07.11).
  17. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/mers-cov/en/(2017.07.11).