Abstract
Waste Isolation Pilot Plant repository releases are evaluated through the application of modified parameters to simulate accelerated creep closure, include capillary pressure effects on relative permeability, and increase brine and gas saturation in the operations and experimental (OPS/EXP) areas. The modifications to the repository model result in increased pressures and decreased brine saturations in waste areas and increased pressures and brine saturations in the OPS/EXP areas. Brine flows up the borehole during a hypothetical drilling intrusion are nearly identical and brine flows up the shaft are decreased. The modified parameters essentially halt the flow of gas from the southern waste areas to the northern nonwaste areas, except as transported through the marker beds and anhydrite layers. The combination of slightly increased waste region pressures and very slightly decreased brine saturations result in a modest increase in spallings and no significant effect on direct brine releases, with total releases from the Culebra and cutting and caving releases unaffected. Overall, the effects on total high-probability mean releases from the repository are insignificant, with total low-probability mean releases minimally increased. It is concluded that the modified OPS/EXP area parameters have an insignificant effect on the prediction of total releases.
