Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Definition and measurement of S-curve based technological discontinuity : case of technological substitution of logic semiconductors

S곡선 기반 기술적 불연속성(Technological discontinuity)의 정의 및 측정 : 로직 반도체의 기술대체 사례

  • Park, Changhyun (Office of R&D Budget and Feasibility Analysis, KISTEP(Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning))
  • 박창현 (한국과학기술기획평가원 재정투자분석본부)
  • Received : 2017.05.01
  • Accepted : 2017.07.07
  • Published : 2017.07.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The phenomenon of technological discontinuity which occurs during technological diffusion and substitution between incumbents and new technology is important to understand the behavior of technology diffusion and substitution of single and multiple technologies. Our research defined the concept of technological discontinuity and developed a model capable of measuring the region of technological discontinuity. Based on a literature review and a model development, we proposed a definition and a model regarding technological discontinuity.The accuracy of the model is verified by applying it on a semiconductor industry case. The technological discontinuity is defined as the region in which both the incumbent and new technology co-exist and the performance of the incumbent technology is better than that of the new technology. In addition, we can model the technological discontinuity using discontinuous time and discontinuous performance. This research will be very useful to understand not only technological discontinuity but also technology diffusion or substitution.

기존 기술과 신기술의 확산 및 대체 과정에서 발생하는 기술적 불연속성 현상은 단일 기술 및 복수 기술의 확산 및 대체 현상의 거동을 이해하는데 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 기술적 불연속성 구간의 개념에 대해 정의하고, 이 구간을 측정할 수 있는 정량적 지표들에 대한 측정 모형을 개발하였다. 문헌리뷰 및 모형 도출을 바탕으로 기술적 불연속성 구간에 대해 정의 및 측정 모형을 제시하였고, 도출한 모형의 정합성을 반도체 산업의 기술대체 사례를 바탕으로 검증하였다. 기술적 불연속성 구간은 기존 기술과 신기술의 S곡선이 시간에 따라 동시에 존재하면서, 기존 기술의 성능이 신기술의 성능보다 높은 구간으로 정의된다. 또한 기술적 불연속 구간은 불연속 시간 및 불연속 성능으로 측정가능하며, 불연속 시간 및 불연속 성능지표는 불연속 구간에서의 기존 기술과 신기술의 시간 차이 및 성능 차이로 모형화 된다. 본 연구는 기술적 불연속성 현상에 대한 이해뿐만 아니라 기술 확산 및 대체 현상의 전체적인 거동의 이해에 유용할 것이다.

Keywords

References

  1. J. A. Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, New York: Harper Brothers, 1942.
  2. Y. T. Park, Management of Technological Knowledge for Next Generation Innovation, Life and Power Press, 2007.
  3. R. N. Foster, Innovation: The attacker's advantage, Summit Books, 1986. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-83742-4
  4. M. A. Schilling, Strategic management of technological innovation, McGraw-Hill Education, 2010.
  5. K. W. Nam et al., "A Study on Technological Forecasting of Next-Generation Display Technology", Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society, vol. 10, no. 10, pp. 2923-2934, 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2009.10.10.2923
  6. P. Anderson and M. L. Tushman, "Technological discontinuities and dominant designs: A cyclical model of technological change", Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 604-633, 1990. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2393511
  7. E. Ehrnberg, "On the definition and measurement of technological discontinuities", Technovation, vol. 15, no. 7, pp. 437-452, 1995. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0166-4972(95)96593-I
  8. C. M. Christensen, "Exploring the limits of the technology S‐curve. Part II: Architectural technologies", Production and Operations Management, vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 358-366, 1992b. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1937-5956.1992.tb00002.x
  9. M. Nieto et al., "Performance analysis of technology using the S curve model: the case of digital signal processing (DSP) technologies", Technovation, vol. 18, no. 6, pp. 439-457, 1998. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-4972(98)00021-2
  10. R. U. Ayres, "Toward a non-linear dynamics of technological progress", Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 35-69, 1994. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(94)90053-1
  11. P. Kapur et al., "Determining adoption pattern with pricing using two-dimensional innovation diffusion model", The Journal of High Technology Management Research, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 136-146, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hitech.2010.05.001
  12. C. H. Park, "A study on technology diffusion trend considering technological performance enhancement and economics : case of technology evolution of 32nm, 22nm, 14nm logic semiconductors", Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 177-184, 2017. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2017.18.2.177
  13. R. M. Henderson and K. B. Clark, "Architectural innovation: The reconfiguration of existing product technologies and the failure of established firms", Administrative Science Quarterly, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 9-30, 1990. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2393549
  14. L. Fleming and O. Sorenson, "Navigating the technology landscape of innovation", MIT Sloan Management Review, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 15-24, 2003.
  15. C. M. Christensen, "Exploring the limits of the technology S‐curve. Part I: component technologies", Production and Operations Management, vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 334-357, 1992a. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1937-5956.1992.tb00001.x
  16. K. M. Eisenhardt, "Building theories from case study research", Academy of Management Review, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 532-550, 1989. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/258557
  17. R. K. Yin, Case Study Research: Design and Methods, Sage publications, Inc., 2009.
  18. S. H. Park, "A Study on Diffusion Models Capturing Technological Substitution", Asia Marketing Journal, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 46-70, 2001.
  19. N. Siggelkow, "Persuasion with case studies", The Academy of Management Journal Archive, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 20-24, 2007. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5465/AMJ.2007.24160882