Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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Cause Analysis of Cost Overruns in International Infrastructure Project Conducted by Korean Contractors

해외토목 원도급사업의 원가상승 원인에 관한 연구

  • Jung, Wooyong (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Han, Seungheon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University)
  • Received : 2017.03.31
  • Accepted : 2017.05.15
  • Published : 2017.05.31
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Abstract

In recent years, large Korean construction companies have suffered serious losses in their overseas business. Many practitioners and researchers have analyzed causes of cost overrun in these projects. However, these arguments have not been empirically verified based on acutal project cases. This study investigated cost overrun rate, contingency, allowance, predicted risk before bidding, and actual and residual risk after award in the 67 international infrastructure projects conducted by 13 large construction companies. The causes of cost overruns are derived as follows. First, they identified the possibility of cost overrun to some extent before the bidding, but did not reflect the enough risk money to bid price. In particular, this behavior was more severe in badly cost-overrun projects. Second, the causes of cost overrun were more influenced by external environmental risk than internal capability risk. However, the internal risk in badly cost-overrun projects was relatively high compared to cost-underrun projects. Third, badly cost-overrun projects failed to mitigate risk. However, cost underrun projects were affected more by low exterior risk conditions than by well mitigated risk. This study provides more informed knowledge in controlling project costs in international infrastructure projects.

최근 국내 대형건설기업은 해외사업에서 큰 손실이 발생하였으며 이러한 손실의 중요한 원인은 저가수주 및 수행역량 때문이었다는 의견이 많았다. 하지만, 원가상승의 원인을 실제사례를 기반으로 실증적으로 검증한 연구는 없었다. 본 연구에서는 13개 대형건설회사에 수행한 67개 해외토목 원도급 사업에 대해, 원가상승률, 예비비, 견적의 여유분, 입찰 전 리스크, 수주 후 발생한 리스크, 수주 후 원가에 영향을 미친 리스크 등을 조사하였다. 이를 바탕으로 본 연구에서 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 첫째, 원가가 상승한 프로젝트는 입찰 전에도 어느 정도 리스크를 인식하고 있었으나 예비비나 견적에 반영된 리스크 금액이 충분하지 못했다. 특히, 원가가 크게 증가한 프로젝트 일수록 이러한 현상이 심하게 나타났다. 둘째, 원가상승의 원인은 내부역량 리스크보다는 외부환경 리스크에 의한 영향이 컸다. 하지만, 원가상승이 컸던 프로젝트에서는 내부역량 리스크도 상대적으로 크게 평가되었다. 셋째, 원가가 증가한 프로젝트들은 리스크 대응 성과가 좋지 않았지만, 원가가 감소한 프로젝트들은 리스크 대응도 중요하지만 입찰 전부터 리스크가 적었던 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 해외건설사업이 보다 나은 원가관리를 위해서, 입찰 전의 리스크 평가와 견적, 수주 후의 리스크 대응에 대해 기초적인 정보를 제공한다.

Keywords

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