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Analysis of Staple Food Price Behaviour: Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Model

  • Jati, Kumara (Trade Policy Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia) ;
  • Premaratne, Gamini (UBD School of Business and Economics, Universiti Brunei Darussalam)
  • Received : 2016.11.02
  • Accepted : 2017.09.10
  • Published : 2017.11.30

Abstract

This study examines the behaviour of staple food price using Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Model. Understanding of staple food price behaviour is important for determining the unpredictability of staple food market and also for policy making. In this paper, we focus on the commodity prices of sugar, rice, soybean and wheat to examine the volatility behaviour of those commodities. The empirical results show that the own-volatility spillover are relatively significant for all food prices. The own-volatility spillover effect for sugar price is relatively large compared with the volatility spillover of other staple food commodities. The findings also highlight that the price volatility of wheat increases during food crisis more than it does when the condition is stable. Also, the own-volatility of rice and wheat in the period of the food crisis is significant and higher compared to the period before food crisis indicates that the past own-volatility effects during food crisis are relatively more difficult to predict because of the uncertainty and high price volatility. Policy recommendations that can be proposed based on the findings are: (1) a better trade agreement in food commodity trade, (2) lower the dependence on wheat importation in Indonesia, and (3) reliable system to minimize food price volatility risks.

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