경영정보학연구 (Information Systems Review)

  • 제19권1호
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  • Pages.123-145
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  • 2017
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  • 2982-6551(pISSN)
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  • 2982-6837(eISSN)
한국경영정보학회 (The Korea Society of Management Information Systems)
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벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 활용한 온라인 게임 규제 영향에 대한 실증적 연구: 웹보드 게임을 중심으로

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Regulation in Online Gaming Industry via Vector Autoregression Model

  • 장문경 (서울대학교 경영대학) ;
  • 전성민 (가천대학교 경영대학) ;
  • 유병준 (서울대학교 경영전문대학원)
  • Moonkyoung Jang (College of Business Administration, Seoul National University) ;
  • Seongmin Jeon (College of Business, Gachon University) ;
  • Byungjoon Yoo (Graduate School of Business, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2017.02.02
  • 심사 : 2017.03.28
  • 발행 : 2017.03.31
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초록

한국의 게임시장은 전 세계 시장의 약 29%의 시장점유율을 차지할 정도로 급성장하였다. 특히, 온라인게임의 수출 규모는 24억 USD를 달성할 정도로 국가경제에서 큰 비중을 차지하고 있다. 이렇게 게임 산업이 급성장하면서 게임 산업에 대한 국가적 차원의 정책과 규제에 대해 여러 논의가 이루어지고 있다. 특히, 웹보드 게임에 대해 정부는 여러 주무 부처를 통한 셧다운제, 행정처분, 게임산업진흥법 시행령 등 다양한 규제정책을 시행하고 있는 실정이다. 이러한 배경에서 본 연구는 2012년 11월에 이루어진 웹보드 규제정책의 영향을 분석하기 위해 2010년 12월부터 2014년 11월까지 약 4년여 간의 게임 트릭스 시계열 자료를 단위근 검정, 벡터자기회귀(VAR, Vector Auto-Regression) 분석, 그랜저 인과관계 검정을 수행하였다. 이를 통해 웹보드 규제 정책 시행 전후의 웹보드 게임서비스 간의 충격 파급효과와 예측 이용시간 변화를 알아보았다. 분석 결과를 바탕으로 웹보드 규제 정책이 실질적으로 정부가 의도한 결과대로 나타냈는지 알아보고, 나아가 웹보드 게임 산업을 보다 건강하게 발전시키기 위한 전략을 제시하고자 한다.

This study empirically examines the effects of regulation on online gaming. Going beyond ad hoc heuristic approaches on individual behavior, we investigate the effects of regulation on dynamic changes of games or service providers. In particular, we propose three theoretical perspectives: social influence to investigate the regulation effect, the role of prior experience to determine the difference in the regulation effect size through users' prior experience, and network externalities to discover the difference in the regulation effect size according to the number of users on an online gaming platform. We use the vector autoregression methodology to model patterns of the co-movement of online games and to forecast game usage. We find that online gamers are heterogeneous. Therefore, policy makers should make suitable regulations for each heterogeneous group to effectively avoid generating gaming addicts without interrupting the economic growth of the online gaming industry.

키워드

과제정보

Byungjoon Yoo is thankful for the support by the Institute of Management Research at Seoul National University.

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