PM_2.5 Simulations for the Seoul Metropolitan Area: ( I ) Contributions of Precursor Emissions in the 2013 CAPSS Emissions Inventory

수도권 초미세먼지 농도모사: ( I ) 2013 CAPSS 배출량 목록의 전구물질별 기여도 추정

CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality Model) simulations were carried out to estimate the potential range of contributions on surface $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations over the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) with the gaseous precursors and Primary Particulate Matters(PPM) available from a recent national emissions inventory. In detail, on top of a base simulation utilizing the 2013 Clean Air Policy Supporting System (CAPSS) emission inventory, a set of Brute Force Method (BFM) simulations after reducing anthropogenic $NO_x$, $SO_2$, $NH_3$, VOCs, and PPM emissions released from area, mobile, and point sources in SMA by 50% were performed in turn. Modeling results show that zero-out contributions(ZOC) of $NH_3$ and PPM emissions from SMA are as high as $4{\sim}5{\mu}g/m^3$ over the region during the modeling period. On the contrary, ZOC of local $NO_x$ and $SO_2$ emissions to SMA $PM_{2.5}$ are less than $1{\mu}g/m^3$. Moreover, model analyses indicate that a wintertime $NO_x$ reduction at least up to 50% increases SMA $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations, probably due to increased HNO3 formation and conversion to aerosols under more abundant ozone and radical conditions after the $NO_x$ reduction. However, a nation-wide $NO_x$ reduction decreased SMA $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations even during winter, which implies that nation-wide reductions would be more effective to curtail SMA $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations than localized efforts.