DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Validating Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The Zambian Case

  • Mahuni, Kenneth (Graduate School of International Studies, Ajou University)
  • Received : 2017.01.02
  • Accepted : 2017.01.19
  • Published : 2017.02.28

Abstract

The fundamental goal of the research was to verify if the Twin Deficits Hypothesis holds for the economy of Zambia using time series data from 1980-2014. The current account and budget deficit were employed as key variables. The exchange rate was also used as a transmission mechanism to see how it contributes in the nexus. Cointegration tests confirmed a long run association of the variables. After fitting the VECM model, Granger causality tests confirmed the existence of twin deficits for Zambia. The results supported uni-directional reverse causality. The exchange rate was shown to be more significant in the long run than in the short run. The implosion of the time series as shown by the predicted cointegration equation implies that unless drastic measures are taken to cure the deficits, using the current account as the major target variable, twin deficits will persist for some time. The major policy implication of this research is that given that Zambia is a primary commodity-dependent developing country subsisting largely on copper revenues to sustain the economy, there is a need to move away from "copper addiction," given the recent volatility of earnings of primary commodities (e.g. through diversification of the economy, import substitution, and other strategies).

Keywords

References

  1. Adkins, L. C. and R. C. Hill, 2008, Using stata for principles of econometrics 3rd edition , John and Wiley & Sons Inc, USA.
  2. Baum, F. C., 2013, VAR, SVAR and VECM Models EC 823: Applied Econometrics, Boston College.
  3. Bigsten, A. and S. Mugerwa, 2000, The political economy of policy failure in Zambia, Working Papers in Economics no 23Department of Economics, Goteborg University
  4. Chaoneka, R., 2014, Examining the twin deficit hypothesis: Evidence from selected SADC countries (1980-2011), Journal of Economic Research 2, 15-30.
  5. Fagernas, S. and J. Roberts, 2004, The fiscal effects of aid in Zambia economic and statistical unit, ESAU Working Paper 10, Overseas Development Institute, and London.
  6. Feenstra, S. and J. Taylor, 2014, International economics, Worth Publishers, USA
  7. Gonzalo, J., 1994, Five alternatives of estimating long run equilibrium relationships, Journal of Econometrics 16, 121-130.
  8. Kim C. H. and D. Kim, 2006, Does Korea have twin deficits, Applied Economics Letters 13, 675-680. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850500404910
  9. Liew, V., 2004, Which lag length criteria should we employ? Economics Bulletin Journal 3, 1-9.
  10. Magazzino, C., 2012, The twin deficit phenomenon: Evidence from Italy, Journal of Economic Corporation and Development 33, 65-80.
  11. Mahembe, E. and N. M. Odhiambo, 2013, The dynamics of foreign direct investment in SADC countries experiences from five middle income economies, Problems and Perspectives in Management 11, 35-45.
  12. Mandishekwa, R., Z. Tambudzai and A. Marufu, 2013, Testing the applicability of the twin deficit hypothesis in Zimbabwe, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development 5, 209-218.
  13. Neaime, S., 2008. Twin deficits in Lebanon: A time series analysism lecture and working paper series No. 2, institute of financial economics, American University of Beirut.
  14. Ngakosso, A., 2016, Congo's twin deficit hypothesis: An empirical evaluation case study, American Journal of Economics 6, 1-14.
  15. Prasad N., 2013, Do twin deficits exist in Nepal? An empirical analysis by using of VECM, Ajou University Publication, South Korea
  16. Sobrino, C. R., 2012, The twin deficits hypothesis and reverse causality: A short-run analysis of Peru, Journal of Economics Finance and Administrative Science 18, 9-15
  17. Wooldridge, J. M., 2009, Introductory econometrics, A modern approach 5th edition, Michigan State University, USA.