Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health

  • 제50권2호
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  • Pages.83-90
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  • 2017
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  • 1975-8375(pISSN)
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  • 2233-4521(eISSN)
대한예방의학회 (The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine)
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Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study

  • Shadmani, Fatemeh Khosravi (Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Mansori, Kamyar (Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Karami, Manoochehr (Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Zayeri, Farid (Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Shadman, Reza Khosravi (School of Public Health, Dezful University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Hanis, Shiva Mansouri (Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences) ;
  • Soori, Hamid (Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences)
  • 투고 : 2016.09.12
  • 심사 : 2017.02.06
  • 발행 : 2017.03.31
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초록

Objectives: The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. Methods: The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. Results: The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. Conclusions: On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.

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참고문헌

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