Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
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A study on technology diffusion trend considering technological performance enhancement and economics : case of technology evolution of 32nm, 22nm, 14nm logic semiconductors

기술적 성능향상 및 경제성을 고려한 기술 확산(Technology Diffusion) 추세에 대한 연구 : 32nm, 22nm, 14nm 로직 반도체의 기술진화 사례

  • Park, Changhyun (Office of R&D Budget and Feasibility Analysis, KISTEP(Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning))
  • 박창현 (한국과학기술기획평가원 재정투자분석본부)
  • Received : 2016.10.21
  • Accepted : 2017.02.03
  • Published : 2017.02.28
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Abstract

Understanding trends and drivers of technology diffusion is imperative to forecast new technology adoption and understand the process of technological innovation. Our research utilizes a quantitative trend analysis considering both technological and economic indicators for trends and drivers of technology diffusion for 32nm, 22nm, and 14nm logic semiconductor technology. In terms of technological performance, the technology diffusion curve showed an S-curve pattern during the stages of maturity and decline, and the diffusion curve showed evidence supporting the learning curve. The diffusion curve showed the life cycle duration of 2 years, and the rate of technological performance and obsolescence are observed quantitatively between generations. Architectural innovation is affected by technological drivers more significantly than economic drivers. This research has implications as empirical research on the trends and drivers of technology diffusion in the high-tech semiconductor industry, and is meaningful in forecasting new technology adoption or build technology strategy.

기술의 확산 현상의 추세 및 발생 동인에 대한 정확한 이해는 새로운 기술을 예측하고 기술 혁신의 과정을 이해하는데 매우 유용하다. 본 연구에서는 기술의 진화 속도가 빠른 반도체 산업 32nm, 22nm, 14nm 로직 기술의 실증적 사례에 대해 기술적 성능 향상 및 경제성 지표를 고려한 정량적 추세 분석을 적용하여 기술 확산 현상의 추세 및 발생 동인을 분석하였다. 기술적 성능 향상을 고려한 기술 확산 곡선은 S곡선의 성숙기, 쇠퇴기 형태를 보였고, 경제성 기반 기술 확산 곡선은 학습효과곡선의 형태를 보였다. 기술 확산 곡선은 2년의 수명주기를 보였고, 기술 세대별 기술적 성능향상 또는 칩 제조비용의 변화 정도가 정량적으로 관찰되었다. 또한 제품구조혁신은 경제적 발생동인보다 기술적 발생동인이 더 지배적인 영향을 미침을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구결과는 첨단기술기반의 반도체 산업에 대한 기술 확산 현상의 추세 및 발생 동인에 대한 실증연구로 시사점이 있으며, 기술 예측 또는 기술 전략 수립에 활용될 수 있으므로 실무적으로도 의의가 크다.

Keywords

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