Journal of the Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회논문지)

Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회)
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Future Strategy of the Korean Petrochemical Industry by Analysing Integrated Emerging Issues

한국 석유화학산업의 미래전략을 위한 융합적 이머징 이슈 분석

  • Received : 2017.09.04
  • Accepted : 2017.12.20
  • Published : 2017.12.28
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Abstract

This study aims to propose a methodology for future strategies of the Korean petrochemical industry. Instead of using static models or trade related statistical analysis, we derived emerging issues of the Korean petrochemical industry through survey in accordance with the STEPPER analysis. The participants of the survey were limited to leading experts of the field, such as businessmen, researchers and professors. Also, I observed whether the current driving forces are suitable in analyzing the future. Furthermore, emerging trends and emerging issues as far as 2040 were also extracted through horizon scanning and expert interviews. Through this study, three factors, which are the global oil prices, economic prospects, and core material development, have been confirmed. In the future, I believe that not only petrochemical industry, but also other industries such as steel, autos, shipbuilding and so on, can be studied for future scenarios and strategies as well.

본 연구는 우리나라 석유화학산업의 미래 전략 수립을 목적으로 미래이슈 발굴을 위한 탐색적 프로세스와 분석을 진행하였다. 연구방법으로서 문헌조사와 함께 STEPPER 분석기법을 활용하여 국내 업계, 학계, 연구계 등 대표적인 전문가들을 대상으로 심층적인 설문조사를 병행함으로써 융합적 시각에서 한국 석유화학산업의 이머징 이슈를 도출했다. 또한 2040년까지 새롭게 떠오르고 있는 트렌드와 이머징 이슈들을 미래이슈분석기법과 전문가 인터뷰를 통해 추출하였다. 이를 통해 미래에도 적용 가능한 변화요인으로서 국제유가 변화, 중국경제 전망, 그리고 미래핵심소재 개발 등 3개 요인들을 확정하였다. 향후 이러한 연구 프로세스를 기반으로 석유화학산업 뿐만 아니라 철강, 자동차, 조선 등 다양한 산업의 미래 시나리오 전략을 위한 연구가 가능할 것이다.

Keywords

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