DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Impact of Future Chinese Emissions on Ozone Air Quality and Human Health in Northeast Asia

동북아 지역에서 중국의 미래 배출량 변화가 오존농도와 보건에 미치는 영향

  • Kim, Hyeon-Kook (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Lyu, Youngsook (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Woo, Jung-Hun (Department of Advanced Technology Fusion, Konkuk University) ;
  • Hong, Sung-Chul (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kim, Deok-Rae (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Seo, Jeonghyeon (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Shin, Myunghwan (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research) ;
  • Kim, Sang-Kyun (Global Environment Research Division, Climate and Air Quality Research Department, National Institute of Environmental Research)
  • 김현국 (국립환경과학원 기후대기연구부 지구환경연구과) ;
  • 유영숙 (국립환경과학원 기후대기연구부 지구환경연구과) ;
  • 우정헌 (건국대학교 신기술융합학과) ;
  • 홍성철 (국립환경과학원 기후대기연구부 지구환경연구과) ;
  • 김덕래 (국립환경과학원 기후대기연구부 지구환경연구과) ;
  • 서정현 (국립환경과학원 기후대기연구부 지구환경연구과) ;
  • 신명환 (국립환경과학원 기후대기연구부 지구환경연구과) ;
  • 김상균 (국립환경과학원 기후대기연구부 지구환경연구과)
  • Received : 2016.09.06
  • Accepted : 2016.11.11
  • Published : 2016.12.31

Abstract

We explore the impact of Chinese future air pollutant emissions on ozone air quality in Northeast Asia (NEA) and health in South-Korea using an assessment framework including ICAMS (The Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System) and BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). The emissions data sets from the climate change scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (emission scenarios, EMSO), are used to simulate ozone air quality in NEA in the current (1996~2005, 2000s), the near future (2016~2025, 2020s) and the distant future (2046~2055, 2050s). Furthermore, the simulated ozone changes in the 2050s are used to analyze ozone-related premature mortality and economic cost in South-Korea. While different EMSOs are applied to the China region, fixed EMSO are used for other country regions to isolate the impacts of the Chinese emissions. Predicted ozone changes in NEA are distinctively affected by large changes in NOx emission over most of China region. Comparing the 2020s with the 2000s situation, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations in NEA is simulated under RCP 8.5 and similarly small increases are under other RCPs. In the 2050s in NEA, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations is simulated under RCP 6.0 and leads to the occurrence of the highest premature mortalities and economic costs in South-Korea. Whereas, the largest decrease is simulated under RCP 4.5 leads to the highest avoided premature mortality numbers and economic costs. Our results suggest that continuous reduction of NOx emissions across the China region under an assertive climate change mitigation scenario like RCP 4.5 leads to improved future ozone air quality and health benefits in the NEA countries including South-Korea.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국립환경과학원