Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment (한국대기환경학회지)

Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment (한국대기환경학회)
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A Comparison Study of Ensemble Approach Using WRF/CMAQ Model - The High PM10 Episode in Busan

앙상블 방법에 따른 WRF/CMAQ 수치 모의 결과 비교 연구 - 2013년 부산지역 고농도 PM10 사례

  • Kim, Taehee (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kim, Yoo-Keun (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Shon, Zang-Ho (Department of Environmental Engineering, Dong-Eui University) ;
  • Jeong, Ju-Hee (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University)
  • 김태희 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 김유근 (부산대학교 대기환경과학과) ;
  • 손장호 (동의대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 정주희 (부산대학교 대기환경과학과)
  • Received : 2016.07.20
  • Accepted : 2016.10.05
  • Published : 2016.10.31
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Abstract

To propose an effective ensemble methods in predicting $PM_{10}$ concentration, six experiments were designed by different ensemble average methods (e.g., non-weighted, single weighted, and cluster weighted methods). The single weighted method was calculated the weighted value using both multiple regression analysis and singular value decomposition and the cluster weighted method was estimated the weighted value based on temperature, relative humidity, and wind component using multiple regression analysis. The effects of ensemble average methods were significantly better in weighted average than non-weight. The results of ensemble experiments using weighted average methods were distinguished according to methods calculating the weighted value. The single weighted average method using multiple regression analysis showed the highest accuracy for hourly $PM_{10}$ concentration, and the cluster weighted average method based on relative humidity showed the highest accuracy for daily mean $PM_{10}$ concentration. However, the result of ensemble spread analysis showed better reliability in the single weighted average method than the cluster weighted average method based on relative humidity. Thus, the single weighted average method was the most effective method in this study case.

Keywords

References

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