Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Impact of Fluctuations in Construction Business on Insolvency of Construction Company by Size

건설경기 변동이 규모별 건설기업 부실화에 미치는 영향 분석

  • Lee, Sanghyo (Innovative Durable Building and Infrastructure Research Center, Hanyang University ERICA)
  • 이상효 (한양대학교 ERICA 건설구조물 내구성혁신 연구센터)
  • Received : 2016.07.13
  • Accepted : 2016.08.11
  • Published : 2016.08.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study analyzed the impact of changes in the construction business on construction company insolvency according to their size using the vector error correction model. First, this study applied EDF (Expected Default Frequency), which was calculated by KMV (Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek) model, as a variable to indicate the insolvency of construction companies. This study set 30 construction companies listed to KOSPI/KOSDAQ for estimating the EDF by size and construction companies were divided into two groups according to their size. To examine the construction business cycles, the amount of construction orders according to the type-residential, non-residential, and civil work- was used as a variable. The serial data was retrieved from TS2000 established by the Korea Listed Companies Association (KLCA), Statistics Korea. The analysis period was between the second quarter of 2001 and fourth quarter of 2015. As a result of calculating the EDF of construction companies by size, as it is generally known, the large-sized construction companies showed lower levels of insolvency than relatively smaller-sized construction companies. On the other hand, impulse response analysis based on VECM confirmed that the level of insolvency of large-scaled companies is more sensitive to business fluctuations than relatively smaller-sized construction companies, particularly changes in the residential construction market. Hence it is a major factor affecting the changes in insolvency of large-sized construction companies.

본 논문에서는 건설경기가 규모별 건설업체 부실화에 미치는 영향을 벡터오차수정모형(VECM : Vector Error Correction Model)을 통해 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 논문에서는 먼저 KMV(Kealhofer, McQuown and Vasicek) 모형을 기반으로 산출하는 예상부도확률을 건설업체 부실화를 나타내는 대리변수로 정의하였다. 본 논문에서는 규모별로 예상부도확률을 측정하기 위해서 건설업체 상장기업 중 30개 업체를 선정하여 규모별로 상위 15개와 하위 15개로 구분하였다. 건설경기 변화를 대리하는 변수로 주거용, 비주거용, 토목용 건설수주액을 활용하였다. 각 변수들의 시계열 데이터는 한국상장회사협의회의 TS2000과 통계청 자료를 통해 확보하였다. 분석기간은 2001년 2분기부터 2015년 4분기까지로 설정하였다. 먼저 규모별 건설업체의 예상부도확률을 산출한 결과, 일반적으로 알려진 바와 같이 대형 건설업체가 상대적으로 규모가 작은 건설업체보다 부실화 정도가 낮은 것으로 확인되었다. 하지만 벡터오차수정모형을 기반으로 한 충격반응분석 결과 대규모 건설업체가 경기 변동에 더욱 민감하게 반응하며, 특히 대규모 건설업체 경영상태 변화에 주거용 건설시장 변화가 주요 요인인 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

References

  1. C. B. Son, C. D. Oh "Estimation of Labor Demand by Business Fluctuations in the Construction Market", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction, 22(5), pp. 211-218, 2006.
  2. S. W. Jang, S. K. Kim, S. H. Lee, J. J. Kim "An Analysis on the Stability Fluctuation of Construction Company related Housing Construction Business", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design, 25(10), pp. 217-224, 2009.
  3. S. W. Jang, S. H. Lee, J. J. Kim "Relationship between the Financial Crisis of Construction Companies and Macroeconomic Fluctuations", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design, 26(8), pp. 237-244, 2010.
  4. S. G. Lee, G. S. Jeon "A Study on Bankruptcy Risk Model of Housing Construction Companies", Korea Real Estate Academy Review, 39, pp. 302-315, 2009.
  5. H. Moon, Y. S. Lee, J. J. Kim "A Study on the Polarization in the Construction Industry through the Investigation about Perception of General and Prime Contractors", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction, 22(10), pp. 147-154, 2006.
  6. Y. S. Jeon, B. R. Park, C. S. Park "A Survival Predicting Model of the Construction Firm", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction, 18(12), pp. 165-172, 2002.
  7. W. Y. Heo, C. M. Suk, W. J. Kim "A Study on the Forecast of Construction Business Failure according to Financial Ratio", Journal of The Korean Institute of Building Construction, 4(2), pp. 137-142, 2004. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5345/JKIC.2004.4.2.137
  8. M. Kang, J. W. Lee "Survival Analysis of Small and Medium Size Construction Enterprises Using Cox's Proportional Hazards Mode", Journal of the Korea Real Estate Analysts Association, 15(2), pp. 41-57, 2009.
  9. O. K. Kwon "An Empirical Study on the Forecasting Model of Specialty Constructors' Insolvency", Master's Thesis, Chung-Ang University, 2011.
  10. K. H. Kang "Developing a Model to Predict the Insolvency of Medium and Small General Contractor", Master's Thesis, Hanyang University, 2012.
  11. I. S. Choi, S. K. Yoo, J. J. Kim "Measuring Default Risk of Construction Company Using KMV-model", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction, 29(2), pp. 67-74, 2013.
  12. J. K. Choi, S. K. Yoo, J. J. Kim "Relationship Between the Default Risk of a Construction Company and Unsold Housing Stock", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction, 29(6), pp. 89-96, 2013. https://doi.org/10.5659/JAIK_SC.2013.29.6.89
  13. J. B. Seo, S. H. Lee, J. J. Kim "Analysis of Correlation between Construction Business and Insolvency of Construction Company", Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 14(3), pp. 3-11, 2013. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6106/kjcem.2013.14.3.003
  14. S. W. Jang "Analysis of Dynamic Relationship between Changes in Domestic and Overseas Orders and Insolvency of Construction Companies", Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 15(2), pp. 87-94, 2014. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2014.15.2.087
  15. I. K. Hwang "An empirical study on the corporate default prediction using stock price information - Changes in default rates after the credit risk crisis -", Master's Thesis, Yonsei University, 2009.
  16. E. J. Lee "A Study on Credit Risk Management based on KMV Credit Monitor Model", Master's Thesis, Yonsei University, 2000.
  17. J. W. Choi "The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy Combining Survival Analysis and KMV model", Master's Thesis, Konkuk University, 2009.
  18. S. H. Yoon "Credit Risk Management using traded stock prices - Empirical study on KMV model -", Master's Thesis, Ewha University, 2001.
  19. D. W. Kang "The analysis of stock price by using the VAR-model", Master's Thesis, Chungnam National University, 2001.
  20. J. H. Jeon "The Influence of Building Permission Area on Housing Purchase Price Index", Master's Thesis, Konkuk University, 2012.
  21. J. H. Choi "An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationship hetween KOSPI200 Index and Futures using ECM", Master's Thesis, Seoul National University, 2000.
  22. W. S. Cho "A Study on the Effects of the open Macroeconomic Variables on the Economic Growth", Doctoral Thesis, Dongkuk University, 2011.
  23. D. Y. Yang "The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industrial Stock Index", Master's Thesis, Sung Kyun Kwan University, 2009.
  24. S. K. Kim, S. H. Lee, J. J. Kim "Analyzing Fluctuation of Construction Business under the Influence of Macroeconomic Factors", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design, 26(4), pp. 263-270, 2010.
  25. S. J. Yang "A VAR Analysis of the Term Structure of Interest Rate in the Korean Bond Market", Master's Thesis, Ewha University, 2009.
  26. H. S. Lee "A Study on the Influence of Macroeconomic Factors upon the Housing Transaction and the Jeonse Rental Index", Doctoral Thesis, Kyungwon University, 2007.
  27. M. K. Ahn, H. Moon, J. J. Kim "The Impacts of Construction Investment related Building Permit Area Indicator", Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction, 22(12), pp. 155-164, 2006.