Korean System Dynamics Review (한국시스템다이내믹스연구)

Korean System Dynamics Society (한국시스템다이내믹스학회)
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Evolution of Limits to Growth Studies and its Implications on Concept and Strategy of Sustainable Development

성장의 한계 논의의 전개와 지속가능발전에의 함의

  • 문태훈 (중앙대학교 도시계획.부동산학과)
  • Received : 2016.05.31
  • Accepted : 2016.06.24
  • Published : 2016.06.30
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Abstract

Purpose of this paper is to review series of Limits to Growth studies from its original Rome Club Report published in 1972 to the most recent one in 2012 by Jorgen Randers and finds its implications on concept and strategy of sustainable development. For this purpose first, this paper reviewed series of Limits to Growth studies in details with focus on scenarios used in simulation of world model. Second, response to the original Limit to Growth was reviewed and to see validity of its scenario based simulations, simulated results of interest variables and actual historical data up to the year 2010 was compared. Third, structure and key arguments in both studies, Limit to Growth studies and Our Common Future was explained and compared. Finally, implications of the Limit to Growth studies on concept and strategy for sustainable development was discussed. Based on the comparison, this paper argued that even if the term sustainable development was not used in the Limit to Growth at all, concept and strategies for sustainable development implied in the Limit to Growth are more clear and specific than those of Our Common Future. Since Limit to Growth studies were simulation based ones that produce detailed behaviors on interest variables, it clarifies more clearly the abstract concept of sustainable development and thus, provides specific guidelines for the direction of sustainable policy which has been suffering long from vagueness of concept of sustainable development.

Keywords

References

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