자원ㆍ환경경제연구 (Environmental and Resource Economics Review)

한국자원경제학회 (Korean Resource Economics Association)
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북극의 기후변화로 인한 생태계변화의 경제적 가치추정

Economic Valuation of the Biodiversity-Related Changes in Ecosystem Services of the Arctic Caused by Climate Change

  • 투고 : 2016.05.02
  • 심사 : 2016.06.25
  • 발행 : 2016.06.30
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초록

2015년은 기후관측이 시작된 이래 평균기온이 최고치를 기록한 해이다. 특히 북극은 어느 지역보다도 빠른 속도로 온난화가 진행되고 있어, 빙하가 계속 감소추세에 있다. 이러한 북극의 급격한 기후변화는 해수면의 상승은 물론 북극의 생태계 균형까지 위협할 뿐만 아니라 한국을 비롯한 중위도권 겨울한파의 원인으로 지목되고 있다. 생물다양성은 기후변화-생태시스템의 복잡한 상호관계를 함축적으로 나타내는 생태학적 개념으로, 본 논문에서는 이를 북극에 적용하여 북극이 보유하고 있는 생물다양성에 대한 경제적 가치를 대한민국 시민을 대상으로 조건부가치추정 방식을 시도하였다. 분석 결과, 북극 생물다양성 개선을 통해 대한민국 시민이 얻는 총 편익은 최소 연간 3,186억 원에서 최대 7,159억 원 정도인 것으로 추정되었다. 본 연구는 생물다양성에 대한 속성을 세부적으로 분류하는데 의도가 있는 것이 아니라 기후변화에 따라 훼손될 우려가 있는 북극의 생태계 전반에 대한 가치평가에 그 목적이 있다. 따라서 북극이 제공하는 생태서비스와 생물다양성을 각기 다른 속성으로 구분할 경우 그 경제적 가치는 본 연구에서 제시하는 편익과 상이할 수 있다.

According to the recent observation by NOAA(US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), 2015 is the warmest year based on global average temperature since 1880. The air temperatures in the Arctic have been rising at almost twice the global average and the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic have declined. And the warming process in the Arctic is accelerating rapidly. These impacts of drastic change in sea ice caused by climate change in the Arctic threaten the eco-system service and biodiversity in the Arctic. This study intends to estimate the economic value on changes in eco-system services and biodiversity of the Arctic caused by climate change. The result of the valuation indicates that the total benefit from improvement of ecosystem in the Arctic ranges from 318.6 billion won to 715.9 billion won per annum. Replication scenarios can be explored into two broad categories in future studies: scenarios in consideration of conflicts of different stakeholders and scenarios based on wider or narrower definition of biodiversity in the Arctic.

키워드

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