대한지리학회지 (Journal of the Korean Geographical Society)

대한지리학회 (The Korean Geographical Society)
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우리나라 저체중아 출생의 공간적 변동성 지도화: 베이지언적 접근

Mapping the Geographic Variations of the Low Birth Weight cases in South Korea: Bayesian Approaches

  • Roh, Young-hee (Division of Natural Resources Conservation, Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Park, Key-ho (Department of Geography, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2016.04.06
  • 발행 : 2016.06.30
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초록

본 연구에서는 우리나라에서 발생한 저체중아 출생 집계 자료를 공간적으로 지도화하기 위한 기법들을 검토 비교하고, 이를 기반으로 우리나라의 LBW 지도를 작성하였다. 표준화사망률이나 조사망률 등은 역학 분야에서 지속적으로 광범위하게 사용되고 있는 지표이다. 그러나 이러한 표준화사망률은 집계 단위의 샘플 수에 영향을 많이 받는다는 단점을 가지고 있다. 이에, 본 연구에서는 베이지언 기법을 활용하여 샘플 수에 따른 통계적 변동성을 감소시키고자 하였다. 이를 위해 경험적 베이지언 기법과 풀 베이지언 기법을 모두 활용하였고, 결과적으로 유사한 통계량을 산출한 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 반면, SMR 기반의 통계량은 높은 분산을 가지고 있음을 확인하였다. 연구의 결과에 따른 통계 지도는 우리나라 저체중아 출생의 높은 위험도를 가지는 지역들을 파악할 수 있도록 한다.

This study reviewed and compared methods for mapping aggregated low birth weight (LBW) and geographic variations in LBW in South Korea. Based on this review, we produced LBW maps in South Korea. Standardized mortality/morbidity ratios (SMRs) and crude mortality rates have been widely used for many years in epidemiological research. However, SMR-based maps are likely to be affected by sample size of unit area. Therefore, this study adopted a model-based approach using Bayesian estimates to reduce noisy variability in the SMR. By using a Bayesian model, we can calculate a statistically reliable RR values. We used the full Bayes estimator, as well as empirical Bayes estimators. As a result, variations in the two Bayes models were similar. The SMR-based statistics had the largest variation. The result maps can be used to identify regions with a high risk of LBW in South Korea.

키워드

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