Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회논문집)

Korea Institute of Construction Engineering and Management (한국건설관리학회)
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An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Estimating Inundation Areas over Time

행위자 기반 모델링을 활용한 시간에 따른 침수 지역 예상

  • Kim, Byungil (Department of Civil Engineering, Andong National University) ;
  • Shin, Sha Chul (Department of Civil Engineering, Andong National University) ;
  • Jung, Jaehoon (Department of Photogrammetry, University of Bonn)
  • Received : 2016.01.07
  • Accepted : 2016.02.26
  • Published : 2016.07.31
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Abstract

Emergency and evacuation planning is critical to reduce potential loss of life from flooding. In order to develop evacuation plans, emergency managers and decision makers require estimates of probable inundation areas and times of inundation. In this paper, we present an agent-based modeling approach that incorporates in a hydrodynamic model to estimate both of these properties. A case study is conducted modeling the failure of a dam located in Andong, South Korea. We estimate flood travel times for Manning's roughness coefficients and discharge using a coupling of the continuity equation and Manning's equation. Using the output from the hydrodynamic model and the flood travel times, the agent-based model produces flood inundation maps at each time interval. The model estimates that for two-thirds of the Andong region the time of inundation is estimated to be slightly less than three minutes. The results of this study can be used to in the development of emergency and evacuation planning for the region.

전 세계는 기상재해로 인해 막대한 경제적 손실 및 인명 피해를 입고 있다. 특히 우리나라는 홍수에 따른 침수 시 인명 피해가 빈번하다. 홍수에 대한 실효성 있는 비상대처계획을 수립하기 위해서는 시간에 따른 침수 예상 지역을 산정하는 것이 중요하다. 이에 본 연구는 안동 도심지를 대상으로 행위자 기반 모델링을 활용해 침수 예상 지역 및 시간을 산정하였다. 연속방정식과 Manning 공식을 이용해 조도계수 및 유량별 전파시간을 계산하였다. 안동댐에 가능최대홍수량이 유입되면 직하류 지점에서 발생할 수 있는 시나리오를 모델링하였다. 이 결과들에 근거해 시간대별 침수 예상 지역을 도시할 수 있는 행위자 기반 모형을 개발하였다. 이 모형을 활용해 대상 지역의 약 3분의 2가 침수되기까지 3분 가까이 소요된다는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 등위도 지역이라 할지라도 침수 예상 시간의 편차가 약 2배까지 발생할 수 있다는 결과 또한 얻을 수 있었다. 본 연구 결과는 대피 장소 및 경로 선정에 실효성 있는 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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