The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Derivation of a benchmark dose lower bound of lead for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder using a longitudinal data set

경시적 자료의 주의력 결핍 과잉행동 장애를 종점으로 한 납의 벤치마크 용량 하한 도출

  • Lee, Juhyung (Department of Statistics, University of Georgia) ;
  • Kim, Si Yeon (Department of Applied Statistics, Yonsei University) ;
  • Ha, Mina (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Dankook University) ;
  • Kwon, Hojang (Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Dankook University) ;
  • Kim, Byung Soo (Department of Applied Statistics, Yonsei University)
  • Received : 2016.08.16
  • Accepted : 2016.11.30
  • Published : 2016.12.31
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Abstract

This paper is to reproduce the result of Kim et al. (2014) by deriving a benchmark dose lower bound (BMDL) of lead based on the 2005 cohort data set of Children's Health and Environmental Research (CHEER) data set. The ADHD rating scales in the 2005 cohort were not consistent along the three follow-ups since two different ADHD rating scales were used in the cohort. We first unified the ADHD rating scales in the 2005 cohort by deriving a conversion formula using a penalized linear spline. We then constructed two linear mixed models for the 2005 cohort which reflected the longitudinal characteristics of the data set. The first model introduced the random intercept and the random slope terms and the second model assumed the first order autoregressive structure of the error term. Using these two models, we derived the BMDLs of lead and reconfirmed the "regression to the mean" nature of the ADHD score discovered by Kim et al. (2014). We also noticed that there was a definite difference between the sampling distributions of the two cohorts. As a result, taking this difference into account, we were able to obtain the consistent result with Kim et al. (2014).

본 연구의 목적은 아동 건강에 미치는 환경의 영향을 평가하기 위하여 우리나라 환경부에서 구축한 경시적 자료인 CHEER 자료를 바탕으로 납의 벤치마크 용량 하한(BMDL)을 도출하여 Kim 등 (2014)의 결과를 재현하는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 CHEER 자료의 2005년 동집단을 사용하였는데, 벌점화 선형 스플라인을 이용한 변환공식으로 2005년 동집단의 ADHD 평가 척도를 통일하고, 경시적 자료의 특성을 반영한 두 개의 선형혼합모형을 구축하였다. 이후 구축된 모형을 바탕으로 혈중 납 농도의 BMDL을 도출하였다. 이 과정에서 Kim 등 (2014)에서 발견한 ADHD 점수의 평균으로의 회귀 현상이 재확인되었고, 2005년 동집단과 2006년 동집단의 분포 상의 특징적 차이가 발견되었다. 결과적으로 이 차이를 감안했을 때, Kim 등 (2014)과 일치적인 결과를 얻을 수 있었다.

Keywords

References

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