The Comparative Advantage of Intermediate Goods Trade in East Asia and Free Trade Agreement

동아시아 국가 간 부품무역 비교우위와 자유무역협정

This study analyzes the degree of dependency and comparative advantage of each country for intermediate goods trade in East Asia, which predicts the comparative advantage of the intermediate goods trade and fragmentation in East Asia when the FTA arrangement in East Asia is implemented. The results are as follows. First, the share of intra-regional trade in the intermediate goods in East Asia has increased over time, implying the deepening of interdependency in intermediate goods trade within the East Asia. Second, Korea is a net exporter in intermediate goods trade for China and ASEAN, whereas it is a net importer for Japan. Japan is a high net exporter for all East Asia, while China is a net importer for Korea, Japan and ASEAN. If FTA arrangement in East Asia is implemented, Japan and Korea will be key suppliers of the intermediate goods for East Asia, while China and ASEAN will play a role of the manufacturing factory through the import of intermediate goods. Third, Korea has a comparative advantage in intermediate trade of electric and electronics and transport vehicle industry in East Asia. Japan has a comparative advantage in all of electric and electronics, transport vehicle, precision instrument, general machinery industry, whereas China has a comparative advantage only in electric and electronics intermediate trade in East Asia. The intra-industry trade of the intermediate goods in precision instrument, general machinery industry is expected to grow among Korea, Japan and China.

본 연구는 1991-2012년간 동아시아 국가 간 산업별 부품무역의 비교우위를 분석하여, 동아시아 FTA 체결 시 예상되는 무역과 생산분할 구조를 분석한다. 분석기간 중 동아시아 내 부품무역의 상호의존도는 지속적으로 증가하여 왔으며, 동아시아 FAT 체결 시 구조적 변화가 없다면 한국과 일본이 동아시아 내 전기 및 전자기기, 수송기기 부품수출을 더 강화하고, 중국과 ASEAN이 최종재를 수출하는 구조는 유지될 것으로 예상된다.