Past Trends and Future Estimation of Annual Breast Cancer Incidence in Osaka, Japan

  • Toyoda, Yasuhiro (Department of Surgery, Saiseikai Senri Hospital) ;
  • Tabuchi, Takahiro (Department of Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases) ;
  • Nakayama, Tomio (Department of Cancer Control and Statistics, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases) ;
  • Hojo, Shigeyuki (Department of Surgery, Saiseikai Senri Hospital) ;
  • Yoshioka, Setsuko (Department of Surgery, Saiseikai Senri Hospital) ;
  • Maeura, Yoshiichi (Department of Surgery, Saiseikai Senri Hospital)
  • 발행 : 2016.06.01


Background: Although the breast cancer incidence rate in Japan is lower than in western countries, the age-specific rates have markedly increased in recent years, along with the problems of declining birth rate and an aging population. Materials and Methods: We examined past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence using data from the Osaka Cancer Registry from 1976 to 2010, and estimated future trends until 2025 based on the changes observed and population dynamics using a log linear regression model. Results: The age-specific breast cancer incidence rate has increased consistently from the 1970s, and the rates have caught up with those of Japanese-Americans in the US. Assuming the increasing tendency of age-specific breast cancer incidence to be constant, the average annual incidence of breast cancer will increase 1.7-fold from 2006-2010 to 2021-2025. Furthermore, the number of patients aged 80 years should increase 3.4-fold. Conclusions: The medical demand for breast cancer care in Japan may increase explosively in the future, particularly among the elderly. We need to prepare for such a future increase in demand for care, although careful monitoring is needed to confirm these results.


연구 과제 주관 기관 : Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology


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