대한안전경영과학회지 (Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science)

  • 제18권4호
  • /
  • Pages.161-169
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  • 2016
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  • 1229-6783(pISSN)
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  • 2288-1484(eISSN)
대한안전경영과학회 (Korea Safety Management & Science)
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결합 예측 기법을 이용한 간헐 수요에 대한 수요예측

Demand forecasting for intermittent demand using combining forecasting method

  • 권익현 (인제대학교 산업경영공학과)
  • Kwon, Ick-Hyun (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Inje University)
  • 투고 : 2016.10.18
  • 심사 : 2016.12.22
  • 발행 : 2016.12.30
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초록

In this research, we propose efficient demand forecasting scheme for intermittent demand. For this purpose, we first extensively analyze the drawbacks of the existing forecasting methods such as Croston method and Syntetos-Boylan approximation, then using these findings we propose the new demand forecasting method. Our goal is to develop forecasting method robust across many situations, not necessarily optimal for a limited number of specific situations. For this end, we adopt combining forecasting method that utilizes unbiased forecasting methods such as simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average. Various simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method performed better than the existing forecasting methods.

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참고문헌

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