Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Assessment of Slope Failures Potential in Forest Roads using a Logistic Regression Model

로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용한 임도붕괴 위험도 평가

  • Baek, Seung-An (Forest Practice Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Cho, Koo-Hyun (Forest Practice Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Hwang, Jin-Sung (Forest Practice Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Jung, Do-Hyun (Forest Practice Research Center, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Park, Jin-Woo (Division of Forest Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Choi, Byoungkoo (Division of Forest Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Cha, Du-Song (Division of Forest Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 백승안 (국립산림과학원 산림생산기술연구소) ;
  • 조구현 (국립산림과학원 산림생산기술연구소) ;
  • 황진성 (국립산림과학원 산림생산기술연구소) ;
  • 정도현 (국립산림과학원 산림생산기술연구소) ;
  • 박진우 (강원대학교 산림과학부) ;
  • 최병구 (강원대학교 산림과학부) ;
  • 차두송 (강원대학교 산림과학부)
  • Received : 2016.05.04
  • Accepted : 2016.06.17
  • Published : 2016.12.31
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Abstract

Slope failures in forest roads often result in social and economic loss as well as environmental damage. This study was carried out to assess susceptibility of slope failures of forest roads in Hongcheon-gun, Gangwon-do where many slope failures occurred after heavy rainfall in 2013 using GIS and logistic regression analysis. The results showed that sandy soil (6.616) in soil texture type had the highest susceptibility to slope failures while medium class (-3.282) in tree diameter showed the lowest susceptibility. A error matrix for both slope failure and non-slope failure area was made and a model was developed showing a classification accuracy of 74.6%. Non-slope failures area in the forest roads were classified mostly in the range of >0.7 which was higher values than the classification criteria (0.5) used by the logistic regression model. It is suggested that considering forest environment and site factors related to forest road failures would improve the accuracy in predicting susceptibility of slope failures.

임도 사면의 붕괴는 환경적 피해 뿐 만 아니라 사회 경제적 손실을 발생시킨다. 본 연구는 2013년 집중호우로 임도 붕괴가 발생한 강원도 홍천군 화촌면 지역을 대상으로 GIS의 속성정보와 로지스틱 회귀분석을 이용하여 임도 붕괴지 위험도 평가를 실시하였다. 로지스틱 회귀분석결과, 토성이 사토인 지역의 회귀계수는 6.616으로 임도붕괴에 가장 위험성이 높았으며, 경급이 중경목인 지역의 경우 회귀계수가 -3.282로 임도사면의 안정성이 높았다. 임도 붕괴지의 정오분류결과는 74.6%의 분류정확도를 보였다. 로지스틱 회귀모델식을 이용하여 전 구간을 대상으로 적용해 본 결과, 임도붕괴지의 경우 0.5의 기준점 보다 높은 0.7이상의 구간에서 가장 많이 분포하여 붕괴가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 임도 위험도 평가의 판별적중률로 볼 때 임도의 산림환경 및 입지인자의 분석을 통해서도 충분한 붕괴위험 평가가 가능할 것으로 사료된다.

Keywords

References

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