상하수도학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater)

  • 제30권1호
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  • Pages.41-49
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  • 2016
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  • 1225-7672(pISSN)
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  • 2287-822X(eISSN)
대한상하수도학회 (The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater)
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기후변화에 따른 주요 도시의 하수도 침수 재현기간 예측

Prediction of Return Periods of Sewer Flooding Due to Climate Change in Major Cities

  • 투고 : 2015.11.23
  • 심사 : 2016.01.18
  • 발행 : 2016.02.28
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초록

In this study, rainfall characteristics with stationary and non-stationary perspectives were analyzed using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Gumbel distribution models with rainfall data collected in major cities of Korea to reevaluate the return period of sewer flooding in those cities. As a result, the probable rainfall for GEV and Gumbel distribution in non-stationary state both increased with time(t), compared to the stationary probable rainfall. Considering the reliability of ${\xi}_1$, a variable reflecting the increase of storm events due to climate change, the reliability of the rainfall duration for Seoul, Daegu, and Gwangju in the GEV distribution was over 90%, indicating that the probability of rainfall increase was high. As for the Gumbel distribution, Wonju, Daegu, and Gwangju showed the higher reliability while Daejeon showed the lower reliability than the other cities. In addition, application of the maximum annual rainfall change rate (${\xi}_1{\cdot}t$) to the location parameter made possible the prediction of return period by time, therefore leading to the evaluation of design recurrence interval.

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참고문헌

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