Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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Predicting Success of Government Policy in the Future with Futures Wheel and Text Mining : Predicting the Future Policy of Wage Peak System

텍스트 마이닝과 퓨쳐스 휠 기법을 활용한 정부정책의 미래 성공 예측 : 임금피크제의 미래 정책예측

  • Received : 2016.10.27
  • Accepted : 2016.12.20
  • Published : 2016.12.28
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict future of wage-peak system by using text mining, futures wheel and polarity voting (+, -) techniques after reviewing a variety of documents. For this study, we collected articles, news articles, SNS(Twitter, Blog), research report documents. Above all, we extracted keywords for main subject words by utilizing text mining techniques. Next, we drew a final conclusion about future of wage-peak system by using futures wheel and polarity voting techniques. The result showed that future of wage peak system is positive. Two of five main topics were negatively predicted (favor/oppose of wage-peak system, solving task of wage-peak system), however, three of five main topics were positively predicted (background of wage-peak system, purpose/reason of wage-peak system, alternative wage-peak system). Therefore, because three of the five main topics were positively predicted, the future for wage-peak system is positive.

본 연구의 목적은 다양한 자료를 검토 한 후 텍스트 마이닝 기법과 미래예측기법인 퓨쳐스휠 기법 그리고 극성선택 기법을 활용하여 임금피크제에 대한 미래 모습을 과학적으로 그려보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 논문, 뉴스기사, SNS(트위터, 블로그), 연구보고서 등을 수집하였다. 수집된 자료를 토대로 텍스트 마이닝 기법을 활용하여 메인주제 단어에 대한 키워드를 추출하고 퓨쳐스휠 기법과 극성선택 기법을 활용하여 임금피크제 미래 성공에 대한 최종결론을 도출하였다. 분석결과 임금피크제 미래 예측은 긍정적으로 예측되었다. 총 5가지의 메인 주제 중 임금피크제 찬반논란과 임금피크제 해결과제는 부정적으로 예측되었지만 임금피크제 배경이나 임금피크제의 목적 및 이유, 임금피크제 대안에 대해서는 긍정적으로 예측 되었다. 따라서 최종적으로 5가지 메인 주제 중 3가지가 긍정적으로 예측되어 임금피크제에 대한 미래는 긍정적으로 예측되었다. 임금피크제의 목적은 고령 근로자들의 정년보장과 고용안정일 것이다. 그러나 임금피크제가 성공적으로 실행되기 위해서는 단순히 연령만 고려된 임금삭감이 아니라 근로시간이나 직원의 직무 유형 등 다양한 특성들을 고려하는 지원이 필요할 것이다.

Keywords

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