DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 농업용 저수지군 운영에 따른 미래 하천유량 평가

Evaluating Future Stream Flow by Operation of Agricultural Reservoir Group considering the RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario

  • Lee, Jaenam (Institute of Agricultural Science, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Noh, Jaekyoung (Department of Agricultural and Rural Engineering, Chungnam National University)
  • 투고 : 2015.08.17
  • 심사 : 2015.09.18
  • 발행 : 2015.09.30

초록

This study aims to evaluate future stream flow by the operation of agricultural reservoir group at the upper stream of the Miho River. Four agricultural reservoirs with storage capacities greater than one million cubic meters within the watershed were selected, and the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario was applied to simulate reservoir water storage and stream flow assuming that there are no changes in greenhouse gas reduction. Reservoir operation scenarios were classified into four types depending on the supply of instream flow, and the water supply reliability of each reservoir in terms of water supply under different reservoir operation scenarios was analyzed. In addition, flow duration at the watershed outlet was evaluated. The results showed that the overall run-off ratio of the upper stream watershed of the Miho River will decrease in the future. The future water supply reliability of the reservoirs decreased even when they did not supply instream flow during their operation. It would also be difficult to supply instream flow during non-irrigation periods or throughout the year (January-December); however, operating the reservoir based on the operating rule curve should improve the water supply reliability. In particular, when instream flow was not supplied, high flow increased, and when it was supplied, abundant flow, ordinary flow, and low flow increased. Drought flow increased when instream flow was supplied throughout the year. Therefore, the operation of the agricultural reservoirs in accordance with the operating rule curve is expected to increase stream flow by controlling the water supply to cope with climate change.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Ahn, J. M., T. H. Im, I. J. Lee, and S. U. Cheon, 2014. Assessment of future river environment considering climate change and basin runoff characteristics. Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association 47(3): 269-283 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.3.269
  2. Allen, R. G., L. S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith, 1998. Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56, Rome, Italy: FAO.
  3. Choi, K. S., 2010. Sensitivity analysis of water resources caused by climate change -focused on the basin of the Daecheong dam-. Ph. D. dissertation, Mokpo, Korea: Mokpo Nataional University (in Korean).
  4. Hargreaves, G. H., and Z. A. Samani, 1985. Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Applied Engineering in Agriculture 1(2): 96-99. https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.26773
  5. Hwang, S. H., M. S. Kang, J. H. Kim, J. H. Song, S. M. Jun, S. H. Lee, and J. Y. Choi, 2012. Assessment of flood impact on downstream of reservoir group at Hwangryong River watershed. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 54(3): 103-111 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.3.103
  6. Kang, S. U., 2011. Development and application of water level zone decision method for long-term reservoir operation using dynamically dimensioned search algorithm. Ph. D. dissertation, Busan, Korea: Pukyoung Nataional University (in Korean).
  7. Kim, J. Y., 2012. Application of hedging rule to Han river reservoir system against severe drought. Ph. D. dissertation, Daejeon, Korea: Chungnam Nataional University (in Korean).
  8. Lee, G. Y., 2000. Development of estimation system for agricultural water demand. Ph. D. dissertation, Seoul, Korea: Konkuk University (in Korean).
  9. Lund, J. R., 1996. Developing seasonal and long-term reservoir system operation plans using HEC-PRM, 11-17. Davis, CA.: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center.
  10. Lee, J. N., and J. K. Noh, 2010. Evaluation of supplying instream flow by operation rule curve for heightening irrigation reservoir. Journal of Agricultural Science 37(3): 481-490 (in Korean).
  11. Lenderink, G., A. Buishand, and W. V. Deursen, 2007. Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11(3): 1145-1159. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-11-1145-2007
  12. Lee, S. H., S. H. Yoo, N. Y. Park, and J. Y. Choi, 2013. An analysis of environmental water release patterns considering operation rules in enlarged agricultural reservoirs. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 55(3): 51-62 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2013.55.3.051
  13. Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MIFAFF), 1997. A study on the water requirement variation with the farming conditions in the paddy field, Seoul : MIFAFF (in Korean).
  14. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), 2002. The design standard for agricultural production infra improvement project plan (Fill dam), 156-161. Seoul : MAF and KARICO (in Korean).
  15. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT), and Han River Flood Control Office (HRFCO), 2009. Estimation, assessment, and securing regional instream flow considering natural & social environment (Han river basin), 733. Seoul : MLIT and HRFCO (in Korean).
  16. Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MFAFF), and Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRCC), 2009. Statistical year book of land and water development for agriculture, 292. Gyeonggi-do, Korea (in Korea).
  17. Noh, J. K., 2013. Securing stream water by considering water uses with software technology (II), Deajeon, Korea: K-water Institute (in Korean).
  18. Oh, S. T., 2014. Smart water management technology for optimal estimation of water supply. KCID magazine 53: 60-66 (in Korean).
  19. Park, J. Y., I. K. Jung, K. Y. Lee, and S. J. Kim, 2013. Development of operating rule curve for multipurpose water supply in heightened agricultural reservoir. Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers 33(4): 1389-1400 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2013.33.4.1389
  20. Senga, Y., 1991. A reservoir operational rule for irrigation in Japan, Irrigation and Drainage Systems 5(2): 129-140. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01140517
  21. Shin, S. C., 2000. Analysis of river flow change based on some scenarios of global warming. Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association 33(5): 623-634 (in Korean).
  22. Schmidli, J., C. Frei, and P. L. Vidale, 2006. Downscaling from GCM precipitation: a benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. International journal of climatology 26(5): 679-689. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1287
  23. So, B. J., M. J. Kim, and H. H. Gwon, 2012. Projection and assessment of next generation climate change scenario of Korea Meteorological Administration: focused on RCP Scenario of KMA. Water for Future 45(8): 56-70 (in Korean).
  24. Yoon, K. H., 2011. Development of downstream control function rule for parallel reservoirs with HEC-ResSIM, Master's thesis, Daegu, Korea: Kyungpook National University (in Korean).
  25. Yoo, S. H., S. H. Lee, J. Y. Choi, and T. S. Park, 2012. Optimizing rules for releasing environmental water in enlarged agricultural reservoirs. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 54(5): 17-24 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.5.017