KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Evaluation of Mobile Emissions Reduction Strategies Using Travel Demand Model and Analytic Hierarchy Process

교통수요모형과 의사결정모형을 이용한 자동차 배출저감정책 평가

  • 이규진 (아주대학교 TOD기반 지속가능 도시교통연구센터) ;
  • 박관휘 (동부엔지니어링(주) 교통연구실) ;
  • 심상우 (아주대학교 TOD기반 지속가능 도시교통연구센터) ;
  • 최기주 (아주대학교 교통시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2015.01.27
  • Accepted : 2015.08.24
  • Published : 2015.10.01
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Abstract

This study proposed an evaluation method of mobile emissions reduction strategies for air quality management. The proposed method was considered Travel Demand Model (TDM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), while an existing method was focused on quantitative factors. AHP of the evaluation indices of mobile emissions reduction strategies show that quantitative evaluation indices such as air pollutants and greenhouse gas reduction are more important than the political evaluation indices (Consistency with an upper plan, Policy applicability, Technical applicability and feasibility) and each weight of air pollutants and greenhouse gas reduction are found to be 0.373 and 0.218. The early scrapping policy of decrepit diesel vehicle is the best policy in the proposal method using TDM and AHP but this result differs from evaluated result by TDM or AHP respectively. These results are limited to the basic assumption and range of reduction scenarios but are expected to contribute to establish more reasonable and effective mobile emission reduction strategies.

본 연구는 자동차 배출저감정책에 대한 기존 정량적 요소 중심의 평가 방법과 차별된, 교통수요모형(Travel Demand Model, TDM)과 다기준 의사결정기법(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)의 연계된 평가 체계를 제시하고자 한다. 자동차 배출저감정책의 다기준 평가항목은 대기오염물질 및 온실가스 감축효과, 상위계획과의 일치성, 정책추진 용이성, 기술적용 용이성으로 설정하였고, AHP분석 결과 정량적 평가항목인 대기오염물질과 온실가스의 감축효과에 대한 상대적 중요도가 각 0.373, 0.218로 정책적 평가항목들에 비해 중요도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 평가 방법론을 적용하여 각 정책들을 평가한 결과, 노후 경유차 조기폐차 정책이 가장 효과적인 정책으로 나타났고, 승용차 요일제 정책, 경차보급 활성화 정책 순으로 나타났으며, 이는 기존의 TDM 또는 AHP에 의해 평가된 우선순위와 다소 차이가 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 이러한 연구 결과는 저감정책 시나리오를 구성한 기본적인 가정과 범위에 국한된 결과라는 한계점이 있지만, 자동차 배출저감 효과와 더불어 정책적 요소들을 반영하여 보다 합리적인 자동차 배출저감정책 방향을 설정하고 효과적인 대응을 하는데 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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